{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ff85198-bc82-470a-8b06-5c3f8289677e", "symbol": "600173", "name": "Wolong New Energy Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.705, "architecture_energy": 43.694, "architecture_maturity": 70.159, "architecture_confidence": 82.854, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.68, "rotation_up": 25.37, "upward_expansion": 6.52, "deceleration": 59.07, "rotation_down": 46.59, "downward_expansion": 77.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.030667, 6.050727, 6.397619, 6.728258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.22, "trend_reference": 7.139, "distance_from_trend": -0.12873, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.670717, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096863, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.992737, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.254197, "excess_performance": -0.210993, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12873, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067529, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096863, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248445, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149927, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090478, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254197, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.327995, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34038127, "relative_activity": 0.558428, "balance": 1.327995, "dry_up": 0.724539, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093866, "annualized_volatility": 0.46806, "from_high_reference": -0.428834, "from_low_reference": 0.149723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.139, "fair_value_reference": 5.670717, "structural_low": 5.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.026022, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.021891, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.420082, "worst_return": -0.208589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.115385, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.003781, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.233606, "worst_return": -0.207585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.085561, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.058869, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146535, "worst_return": -0.111777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.203676, "energy": 79.964912, "activity_lines": [ 6.070667, 6.356909, 6.765952, 7.053548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.61, "volume": 30760354, "typical_volume": 63159182.55, "trend": 7.243667, "fair_value": 5.656355, "relative_strength": -20.316284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.344989, "energy": 86.41503, "activity_lines": [ 5.882667, 6.177091, 6.622952, 6.94486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.9, "volume": 59358457, "typical_volume": 62416573.65, "trend": 7.204333, "fair_value": 5.66024, "relative_strength": -17.023264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.392558, "energy": 76.883817, "activity_lines": [ 5.853333, 6.084364, 6.520667, 6.858172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.14, "volume": 52495729, "typical_volume": 62249377.05, "trend": 7.169333, "fair_value": 5.665791, "relative_strength": -13.868972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.074552, "energy": 53.835147, "activity_lines": [ 5.936667, 6.054909, 6.45119, 6.789505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.22, "volume": 34038127, "typical_volume": 60953497.6, "trend": 7.139, "fair_value": 5.670717, "relative_strength": -14.992737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.704523, "energy": 43.693906, "activity_lines": [ 6.030667, 6.050727, 6.397619, 6.728258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }