{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ff8a025-b030-46f8-8598-0f1de86b708b", "symbol": "JPEC", "name": "Jpm Carbon Transition Global Eq", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.17, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.662, "architecture_energy": 89.021, "architecture_maturity": 54.473, "architecture_confidence": 78.624, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.37, "rotation_up": 59.8, "upward_expansion": 97.67, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 30.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.532334, 30.422545, 29.866714, 29.291656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.530001, "trend_reference": 28.575167, "distance_from_trend": 0.06841, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.653901, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145423, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.281782, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132839, "excess_performance": -0.038053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06841, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041945, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145423, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029916, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023668, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132839, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.222618, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.222618, "dry_up": 0.46513, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004497, "annualized_volatility": 0.132158, "from_high_reference": -0.002124, "from_low_reference": 0.206719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.575167, "fair_value_reference": 26.653901, "structural_low": 26.205, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.013682, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.010879, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.016952, "worst_return": 0.010411, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025357, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 25.995001, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 26.299999, "volume": 340, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"activity_lines": [ 30.273999, 30.069545, 29.205595, 28.70586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.594999, "volume": 352, "typical_volume": 422.0, "trend": 28.217167, "fair_value": 26.521761, "relative_strength": -2.098112, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.766426, "energy": 92.821878, "activity_lines": [ 30.418332, 30.201636, 29.395928, 28.867107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.530001, "volume": 431, "typical_volume": 438.55, "trend": 28.3365, "fair_value": 26.566798, "relative_strength": -2.055584, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.44587, "energy": 85.469974, "activity_lines": [ 30.486, 30.294454, 29.565285, 29.016322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.530001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 420.85, "trend": 28.455833, "fair_value": 26.610833, "relative_strength": -2.601922, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.201642, "energy": 68.976365, "activity_lines": [ 30.524, 30.365363, 29.722619, 29.157838 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.530001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 420.85, "trend": 28.575167, "fair_value": 26.653901, "relative_strength": -5.281782, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.661577, "energy": 89.020934, "activity_lines": [ 30.532334, 30.422545, 29.866714, 29.291656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }