{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ff9ad34-3db0-4107-9205-8aa048d6e912", "symbol": "00965", "name": "Yuanta Global Aerospace and Defense Technology ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.609, "architecture_energy": 12.481, "architecture_maturity": 26.61, "architecture_confidence": 58.843, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.69, "rotation_up": 46.09, "upward_expansion": 29.9, "deceleration": 31.92, "rotation_down": 22.29, "downward_expansion": 23.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.456666, 25.207454, 25.224666, 25.280602 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 26.59, "trend_reference": 25.346333, "distance_from_trend": 0.049067, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.982359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267255, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.533553, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.04152, "excess_performance": -0.337792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049067, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032521, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267255, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185336, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040146, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04152, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.052848, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18823824, "relative_activity": 1.00726, "balance": 1.052848, "dry_up": 0.5371, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041311, "annualized_volatility": 0.238987, "from_high_reference": -0.017369, "from_low_reference": 0.326846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.346333, "fair_value_reference": 20.982359, "structural_low": 23.35, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.005336, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025498, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.030242, "worst_return": -0.019569, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072177, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 15.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 15.01, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-29", 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-24.282845, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.009027, "energy": 36.039615, "activity_lines": [ 24.762666, 24.892909, 25.12119, 25.198236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.08, "volume": 8628827, "typical_volume": 19782449.25, "trend": 25.152666, "fair_value": 20.871149, "relative_strength": -23.259464, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.095794, "energy": 12.558793, "activity_lines": [ 24.820666, 24.904727, 25.10319, 25.199032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.049999, "volume": 5851856, "typical_volume": 18788296.85, "trend": 25.223, "fair_value": 20.918636, "relative_strength": -21.839239, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.924758, "energy": 22.914832, "activity_lines": [ 24.912666, 24.913454, 25.088619, 25.192408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.59, "volume": 18823824, "typical_volume": 18688146.05, "trend": 25.346333, "fair_value": 20.982359, "relative_strength": -18.533553, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.608774, "energy": 12.481292, "activity_lines": [ 25.456666, 25.207454, 25.224666, 25.280602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }