{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ffef436-efe8-480a-8e1f-70af872eaced", "symbol": "TCH-F140", "name": "Tachlit Index Sal Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (4A) S&P Financial Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.235, "architecture_energy": 66.928, "architecture_maturity": 93.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.039, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.71, "rotation_up": 29.92, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 47.76, "downward_expansion": 73.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.106667, 106.346, 1186.561095, 1849.227161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 41.87, "trend_reference": 2612.412667, "distance_from_trend": -0.983973, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3176.867821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98682, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.818986, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989192, "excess_performance": -1.018092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983973, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30783, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98682, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.122836, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.98819, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.732598, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989192, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.858059, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10781, "relative_activity": 0.946436, "balance": 2.858059, "dry_up": 0.476993, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.06127, "annualized_volatility": 6.351394, "from_high_reference": -0.989692, "from_low_reference": 0.121318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2612.412667, "fair_value_reference": 3176.867821, "structural_low": 37.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.023575, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.021565, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.139252, "worst_return": -0.989747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.065957, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.049161, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.131579, "worst_return": -0.989058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.040167, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.09467, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.084649, "worst_return": -0.198594, "sufficient": false }, 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3241.868141, "relative_strength": -98.958188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.666606, "energy": 89.033197, "activity_lines": [ 39.283333, 1031.989091, 2114.989048, 2597.72043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.29, "volume": 2618, "typical_volume": 12811.05, "trend": 3007.957333, "fair_value": 3226.075128, "relative_strength": -98.945688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.332685, "energy": 88.564572, "activity_lines": [ 39.751333, 700.434, 1856.633667, 2397.908108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.49, "volume": 5465, "typical_volume": 12271.05, "trend": 2876.040333, "fair_value": 3209.956474, "relative_strength": -98.940887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.994795, "energy": 82.59025, "activity_lines": [ 40.115333, 436.037273, 1616.019762, 2206.458602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.3, "volume": 2870, "typical_volume": 11768.6, "trend": 2744.217, "fair_value": 3193.458397, "relative_strength": -98.862369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.638754, "energy": 67.565457, "activity_lines": [ 40.605333, 237.960727, 1392.952095, 2023.572129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.87, "volume": 10781, "typical_volume": 11391.15, "trend": 2612.412667, "fair_value": 3176.867821, "relative_strength": -98.818986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.235377, "energy": 66.928435, "activity_lines": [ 41.106667, 106.346, 1186.561095, 1849.227161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }