{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40034c2d-4e48-446f-a6de-cb799b877edf", "symbol": "BLUE", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY - ECPI Global ESG Blue Economy UCITS ETF Cap", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.324, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.014, "architecture_energy": 60.834, "architecture_maturity": 29.323, "architecture_confidence": 75.804, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.45, "rotation_up": 66.59, "upward_expansion": 84.79, "deceleration": 59.41, "rotation_down": 20.21, "downward_expansion": 9.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.6064, 18.533571, 18.301455, 18.13304 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.7395, "trend_reference": 17.917727, "distance_from_trend": 0.045864, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.076029, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16568, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.847882, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060328, "excess_performance": 0.007017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045864, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039703, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16568, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032918, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018479, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039841, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060328, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.816484, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12331, "relative_activity": 1.243232, "balance": 0.816484, "dry_up": 1.042295, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015105, "annualized_volatility": 0.107271, "from_high_reference": -0.00433, "from_low_reference": 0.193599 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.917727, "fair_value_reference": 16.076029, "structural_low": 16.7584, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.010956, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.006952, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.057796, "worst_return": -0.107062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.032495, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007314, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.067826, "worst_return": -0.149235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.029312, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03616, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.100316, "worst_return": -0.160368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 18.478201, "volume": 12874, "typical_volume": 11922.25, "trend": 17.66081, "fair_value": 15.962019, "relative_strength": 5.579013, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.146001, "energy": 83.003195, "activity_lines": [ 18.4491, 18.2526, 18.053395, 17.914784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.607, "volume": 7038, "typical_volume": 11802.5, "trend": 17.729657, "fair_value": 15.990471, "relative_strength": 6.106885, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.241615, "energy": 85.179653, "activity_lines": [ 18.532907, 18.344976, 18.120431, 17.975829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.6541, "volume": 12750, "typical_volume": 11370.9, "trend": 17.802363, "fair_value": 16.017906, "relative_strength": 5.755608, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.215335, "energy": 85.870038, "activity_lines": [ 18.599493, 18.431454, 18.189796, 18.03547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.436001, "volume": 9233, "typical_volume": 10344.65, "trend": 17.860803, "fair_value": 16.045713, "relative_strength": 2.72997, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.056846, "energy": 57.829179, "activity_lines": [ 18.555034, 18.460182, 18.233411, 18.07635 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.7395, "volume": 12331, "typical_volume": 9918.5, "trend": 17.917727, "fair_value": 16.076029, "relative_strength": 1.847882, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.014026, "energy": 60.834085, "activity_lines": [ 18.6064, 18.533571, 18.301455, 18.13304 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }