{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4008fe52-0fd3-4c80-be90-b54e4c5b4ebd", "symbol": "CBEE3", "name": "Ampla Energia e Servi\u00e7os S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.937, "architecture_energy": 19.968, "architecture_maturity": 23.294, "architecture_confidence": 57.5, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.83, "rotation_up": 16.85, "upward_expansion": 14.73, "deceleration": 60.72, "rotation_down": 58.09, "downward_expansion": 44.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.062667, 10.594, 10.937952, 10.777118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.01, "trend_reference": 10.597, "distance_from_trend": -0.055393, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.92401, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08367, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.7751, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096386, "excess_performance": 0.153434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055393, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077551, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.08367, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083822, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077751, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15655, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096386, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.5, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.5, "dry_up": 1.572581, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.186967, "annualized_volatility": 1.114934, "from_high_reference": -0.496985, "from_low_reference": 0.123457 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.597, "fair_value_reference": 10.92401, "structural_low": 8.91, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.017094, "positive_rate": 0.090909, "directional_follow_through": 0.090909, "median_excess_return": -0.057777, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.000435, "worst_return": -0.165833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.061033, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.191023, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.044293, "worst_return": -0.23, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.175314, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.299027, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.047863, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180769, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083568, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021716, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112098, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089253, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024096, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", 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81.461101, "activity_lines": [ 9.186, 9.490545, 9.759571, 9.80757 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 11.95, "volume": 3300, "typical_volume": 1060.0, "trend": 9.834333, "fair_value": 11.03782, "relative_strength": 5.839432, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.943511, "energy": 18.662396, "activity_lines": [ 10.038, 9.903636, 9.949952, 9.950387 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 15.31, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 985.0, "trend": 10.044333, "fair_value": 11.036924, "relative_strength": 38.270227, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.196244, "energy": 89.804347, "activity_lines": [ 11.876667, 10.891818, 10.451143, 10.303656 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 19.9, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 985.0, "trend": 10.407333, "fair_value": 11.075342, "relative_strength": 74.713557, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", 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1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.213246, "energy": 26.331444, "activity_lines": [ 11.962, 12.045455, 11.272, 10.932925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.04, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 990.0, "trend": 10.550667, "fair_value": 10.999509, "relative_strength": -14.447632, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.927096, "energy": 24.41936, "activity_lines": [ 10.875333, 11.771455, 11.200333, 10.900065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.39, "volume": 3400, "typical_volume": 1135.0, "trend": 10.580333, "fair_value": 10.982461, "relative_strength": -8.545286, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.95691, "energy": 24.07013, "activity_lines": [ 10.256667, 11.559455, 11.16181, 10.889699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.01, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 1070.0, "trend": 10.597333, "fair_value": 10.962978, "relative_strength": -10.657175, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.596315, "energy": 22.520777, "activity_lines": [ 10.145333, 11.257636, 11.085238, 10.852903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.01, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 620.0, "trend": 10.597333, "fair_value": 10.943494, "relative_strength": -11.535398, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.129359, "energy": 22.108991, "activity_lines": [ 10.099333, 10.935818, 11.011667, 10.815011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.01, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 620.0, "trend": 10.597, "fair_value": 10.92401, "relative_strength": -7.7751, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.936509, "energy": 19.967636, "activity_lines": [ 10.062667, 10.594, 10.937952, 10.777118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }