{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "400c0986-0551-45e3-b912-8110c9e26369",
    "symbol": "ESG",
    "name": "Invesco S&P 500 ESG Index ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 85.148,
    "architecture_energy": 63.515,
    "architecture_maturity": 86.976,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.282,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.54,
        "rotation_up": 53.21,
        "upward_expansion": 80.28,
        "deceleration": 68.66,
        "rotation_down": 29.6,
        "downward_expansion": 15.95
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        55.896668,
        55.779294,
        54.869764,
        53.55684
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 57.290001,
    "trend_reference": 52.09605,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.0997,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 43.20513,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.123617,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.13722,
    "excess_performance": 0.016799,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0997,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.034412,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.326,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03777,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001236,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02054,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.13722,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.390397,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2500,
      "relative_activity": 0.206186,
      "balance": 1.390397,
      "dry_up": 0.404124,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.019463,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.133839,
      "from_high_reference": -0.012241,
      "from_low_reference": 0.240703
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 52.09605,
      "fair_value_reference": 43.20513,
      "structural_low": 46.490002,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 39,
        "median_return": 0.013905,
        "positive_rate": 0.692308,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.692308,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000203,
        "regime_survival": 0.794872,
        "best_return": 0.0599,
        "worst_return": -0.07291,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.052427,
        "positive_rate": 0.846154,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.846154,
        "median_excess_return": 0.021309,
        "regime_survival": 0.692308,
        "best_return": 0.165727,
        "worst_return": -0.099322,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
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        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
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        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
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        "worst_return": -0.074762,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.03479,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "return": -0.0578,
        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-07-04",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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          49.18678,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 51.43,
        "volume": 4400,
        "typical_volume": 12601.1,
        "trend": 49.74404,
        "fair_value": 40.890199,
        "relative_strength": -4.648241,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 23.756672,
        "energy": 34.313365,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.313,
          49.29148,
          49.364418,
          49.578676
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 51.559814,
        "volume": 54700,
        "typical_volume": 15002.55,
        "trend": 49.812757,
        "fair_value": 41.03411,
        "relative_strength": -4.241159,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 33.893094,
        "energy": 44.380744,
        "activity_lines": [
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          49.695823
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 53.056908,
        "volume": 16800,
        "typical_volume": 15293.2,
        "trend": 49.968252,
        "fair_value": 41.185894,
        "relative_strength": -1.930369,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 48.406819,
        "energy": 71.358104,
        "activity_lines": [
          51.879586,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 53.655743,
        "volume": 22700,
        "typical_volume": 16310.45,
        "trend": 50.111908,
        "fair_value": 41.338323,
        "relative_strength": -0.010589,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.088547,
        "energy": 89.719949,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.627719,
          51.228254,
          50.239652,
          50.143026
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 54.005066,
        "volume": 2600,
        "typical_volume": 15450.0,
        "trend": 50.234392,
        "fair_value": 41.490374,
        "relative_strength": -1.188413,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.337189,
        "energy": 91.428687,
        "activity_lines": [
          53.224577,
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          50.625674,
          50.394197
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 54.583939,
        "volume": 13800,
        "typical_volume": 15365.0,
        "trend": 50.362977,
        "fair_value": 41.64524,
        "relative_strength": -0.948556,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.289722,
        "energy": 92.597764,
        "activity_lines": [
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          51.045987,
          50.674813
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 54.134815,
        "volume": 11500,
        "typical_volume": 15045.0,
        "trend": 50.501964,
        "fair_value": 41.797995,
        "relative_strength": -0.686043,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.102773,
        "energy": 87.938542,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.092895,
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          51.406156,
          50.918158
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 55.023087,
        "volume": 10800,
        "typical_volume": 14570.0,
        "trend": 50.655337,
        "fair_value": 41.95325,
        "relative_strength": -0.550832,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.070077,
        "energy": 90.780019,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.471492,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 56.250702,
        "volume": 1900,
        "typical_volume": 14120.0,
        "trend": 50.865193,
        "fair_value": 42.119376,
        "relative_strength": 1.580042,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 89.293478,
        "energy": 94.53485,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.128216,
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          51.570834
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 55.582001,
        "volume": 10600,
        "typical_volume": 13000.0,
        "trend": 51.019266,
        "fair_value": 42.27658,
        "relative_strength": 0.413012,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.668738,
        "energy": 88.392546,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.389043,
          54.674128,
          52.783088,
          51.875145
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 56.290001,
        "volume": 1000,
        "typical_volume": 12770.0,
        "trend": 51.209794,
        "fair_value": 42.438323,
        "relative_strength": 0.969916,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.319988,
        "energy": 92.075473,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.78074,
          55.103545,
          53.253081,
          52.215192
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 56.25,
        "volume": 20000,
        "typical_volume": 13260.0,
        "trend": 51.407109,
        "fair_value": 42.597247,
        "relative_strength": 0.810559,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.919253,
        "energy": 89.989275,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.045367,
          55.437325,
          53.686072,
          52.540367
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 54.740002,
        "volume": 5800,
        "typical_volume": 13300.0,
        "trend": 51.554429,
        "fair_value": 42.744954,
        "relative_strength": -1.663848,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.39351,
        "energy": 68.394056,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.665648,
          55.411284,
          53.946099,
          52.755392
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 54.77,
        "volume": 1600,
        "typical_volume": 12755.0,
        "trend": 51.688877,
        "fair_value": 42.890356,
        "relative_strength": -1.75915,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.24848,
        "energy": 58.363742,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.314801,
          55.360096,
          54.184073,
          52.962848
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 55.490002,
        "volume": 9700,
        "typical_volume": 12480.0,
        "trend": 51.884252,
        "fair_value": 43.041333,
        "relative_strength": 0.051932,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.827031,
        "energy": 51.150978,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.302668,
          55.419558,
          54.459199,
          53.208082
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 57.290001,
        "volume": 2500,
        "typical_volume": 12125.0,
        "trend": 52.09605,
        "fair_value": 43.20513,
        "relative_strength": 0.123617,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.147872,
        "energy": 63.515479,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.896668,
          55.779294,
          54.869764,
          53.55684
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}