{ "ticker": { "uuid": "401049c0-9de1-493d-9909-36ff47e949ec", "symbol": "BOCN", "name": "Bank of China Limited", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.466, "architecture_energy": 88.705, "architecture_maturity": 13.589, "architecture_confidence": 71.604, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.99, "rotation_up": 81.56, "upward_expansion": 97.67, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 8.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.588447, 0.554255, 0.518377, 0.513202 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.5812, "trend_reference": 0.507657, "distance_from_trend": 0.144868, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.26964, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.155464, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.104237, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.150891, "excess_performance": -0.023356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.144868, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04852, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.155464, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.273654, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031042, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179677, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150891, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.358723, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.358723, "dry_up": 0.065911, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043295, "annualized_volatility": 0.534683, "from_high_reference": -0.059851, "from_low_reference": 0.671013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.507657, "fair_value_reference": 0.26964, "structural_low": 0.419523, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.02369, "positive_rate": 0.741935, "directional_follow_through": 0.741935, "median_excess_return": 0.017755, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 1.798732, "worst_return": -0.223392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.122091, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.126853, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 1.714592, "worst_return": -0.09933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.743952, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.57251, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.852031, "worst_return": -0.065259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.5661, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2241.45, "trend": 0.497467, "fair_value": 0.259276, "relative_strength": 5.50633, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.538172, "energy": 50.805184, "activity_lines": [ 0.533146, 0.499182, 0.49168, 0.495006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.5961, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2241.45, "trend": 0.50111, "fair_value": 0.262731, "relative_strength": 9.333819, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.782086, "energy": 71.198367, "activity_lines": [ 0.562881, 0.520478, 0.501154, 0.50137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6078, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 1896.5, "trend": 0.504484, "fair_value": 0.266269, "relative_strength": 11.238388, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.58369, "energy": 95.24802, "activity_lines": [ 0.586333, 0.541213, 0.511277, 0.508253 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5812, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1896.5, "trend": 0.507657, "fair_value": 0.26964, "relative_strength": 3.104237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.466498, "energy": 88.704901, "activity_lines": [ 0.588447, 0.554255, 0.518377, 0.513202 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }