{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4016b2f6-afbd-4ecc-a09d-6fa829f4d63d", "symbol": "A1LG34", "name": "Align Technology, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.856, "architecture_energy": 11.98, "architecture_maturity": 10.607, "architecture_confidence": 52.733, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.55, "rotation_up": 22.25, "upward_expansion": 22.01, "deceleration": 36.32, "rotation_down": 31.42, "downward_expansion": 53.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 225.023999, 225.795818, 222.704048, 223.838258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 224.619995, "trend_reference": 225.905333, "distance_from_trend": -0.00569, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 283.565833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.207874, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.611219, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018484, "excess_performance": 0.038565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00569, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028813, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.207874, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064759, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026112, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.18729, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018484, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.228571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4, "relative_activity": 0.373832, "balance": 1.228571, "dry_up": 0.981308, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032082, "annualized_volatility": 0.358657, "from_high_reference": -0.096097, "from_low_reference": 0.364973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 225.905333, "fair_value_reference": 283.565833, "structural_low": 198.949997, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.059276, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.045924, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.162598, "worst_return": -0.173737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.04762, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088297, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.169612, "worst_return": -0.371004, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.27964, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.292725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.086071, "worst_return": -0.64535, 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216.483639, 220.770668, 222.951657 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 229.770004, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.6, "trend": 223.869, "fair_value": 291.504487, "relative_strength": -0.083501, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.323868, "energy": 17.391635, "activity_lines": [ 223.667337, 218.431458, 221.162383, 223.403119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 227.929993, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.55, "trend": 224.886666, "fair_value": 290.349295, "relative_strength": -0.715521, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.484183, "energy": 22.647974, "activity_lines": [ 226.077334, 220.182729, 221.374477, 223.665119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 229.080002, "volume": 68, "typical_volume": 21.95, "trend": 225.291667, "fair_value": 288.968782, "relative_strength": -1.112363, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.319563, "energy": 30.493252, "activity_lines": [ 228.192, 222.397456, 221.794049, 223.935657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 228.389999, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 22.8, "trend": 225.600667, "fair_value": 287.866474, "relative_strength": 2.143382, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.81043, "energy": 40.120542, "activity_lines": [ 228.758, 224.277637, 222.240382, 224.135549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 227.039993, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 20.0, "trend": 225.864667, "fair_value": 286.327949, "relative_strength": 2.388704, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.491937, "energy": 34.243913, "activity_lines": [ 228.108664, 225.715817, 222.621429, 224.228409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 221.320007, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 20.05, "trend": 226.122667, "fair_value": 284.906603, "relative_strength": -2.14835, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.726103, "energy": 15.503663, "activity_lines": [ 225.734667, 225.633273, 222.513953, 223.935205 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 224.619995, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 10.7, "trend": 225.905333, "fair_value": 283.565833, "relative_strength": 2.611219, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.856268, "energy": 11.980058, "activity_lines": [ 225.023999, 225.795818, 222.704048, 223.838258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }