{ "ticker": { "uuid": "402322ca-d232-49a6-aeef-ab1f7538274b", "symbol": "AIGI", "name": "WisdomTree Industrial Metals", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.257, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.323, "architecture_energy": 29.13, "architecture_maturity": 27.16, "architecture_confidence": 50.077, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.02, "rotation_up": 47.19, "upward_expansion": 63.27, "deceleration": 61.54, "rotation_down": 21.19, "downward_expansion": 15.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.957466, 16.872399, 16.926857, 16.738017 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.143999, "trend_reference": 16.457733, "distance_from_trend": 0.041699, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.363859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193551, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.47435, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105066, "excess_performance": -0.065825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041699, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048544, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193551, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008024, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044743, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063428, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105066, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.695365, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 211854, "relative_activity": 1.396103, "balance": 3.695365, "dry_up": 1.551734, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025198, "annualized_volatility": 0.149687, "from_high_reference": -0.043624, "from_low_reference": 0.33209 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.457733, "fair_value_reference": 14.363859, "structural_low": 15.108, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001479, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018933, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.140219, "worst_return": -0.132255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.037262, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.037138, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.12598, "worst_return": -0.081924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029821, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011902, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.195969, "worst_return": -0.128277, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034955, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034725, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0172, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016479, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020701, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001947, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033348, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.146619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044729, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.72, "volume": 33086, "typical_volume": 77541.85, "trend": 13.826, "fair_value": 13.823391, "relative_strength": -18.950495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 16.686001, "volume": 259304, "typical_volume": 139469.1, "trend": 16.216067, "fair_value": 14.263179, "relative_strength": -5.36405, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.019004, "energy": 27.507668, "activity_lines": [ 16.6908, 16.938545, 16.827809, 16.582275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.639999, "volume": 130081, "typical_volume": 140120.0, "trend": 16.283533, "fair_value": 14.287885, "relative_strength": -4.110944, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.840368, "energy": 26.641768, "activity_lines": [ 16.628667, 16.8632, 16.831666, 16.609626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.931999, "volume": 365869, "typical_volume": 151257.1, "trend": 16.356733, "fair_value": 14.311231, "relative_strength": -2.130817, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.316585, "energy": 18.805782, "activity_lines": [ 16.709733, 16.845018, 16.859476, 16.651462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.969999, "volume": 234078, "typical_volume": 149550.7, "trend": 16.415666, "fair_value": 14.335923, "relative_strength": -2.614015, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.666032, "energy": 15.068407, "activity_lines": [ 16.818666, 16.838036, 16.886419, 16.691028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.143999, "volume": 211854, "typical_volume": 151746.7, "trend": 16.457733, "fair_value": 14.363859, "relative_strength": -4.47435, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.323363, "energy": 29.129869, "activity_lines": [ 16.957466, 16.872399, 16.926857, 16.738017 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }