{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4027e83c-735e-487f-86e7-27c8aca255e2", "symbol": "300688", "name": "Dark Horse Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 65.172, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.351, "architecture_energy": 19.21, "architecture_maturity": 23.011, "architecture_confidence": 71.932, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.5, "rotation_up": 42.37, "upward_expansion": 34.85, "deceleration": 31.11, "rotation_down": 25.94, "downward_expansion": 25.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.321334, 27.431273, 26.774857, 26.855333 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 30.59, "trend_reference": 27.493333, "distance_from_trend": 0.112633, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.349618, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079027, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.952649, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.025478, "excess_performance": 0.018078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112633, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02598, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.079027, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107474, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019526, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.264391, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025478, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.879986, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105895622, "relative_activity": 3.022893, "balance": 0.879986, "dry_up": 2.319436, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144768, "annualized_volatility": 0.718395, "from_high_reference": -0.211598, "from_low_reference": 0.756028 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.493333, "fair_value_reference": 28.349618, "structural_low": 17.42, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.060097, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.006498, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 1.255868, "worst_return": -0.365243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.107394, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034554, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 2.120892, "worst_return": -0.224675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.074549, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.151878, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.257474, "worst_return": -0.345844, 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27.273333, 26.824364, 26.433143, 27.033806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.26, "volume": 29329322, "typical_volume": 26105571.0, "trend": 27.703667, "fair_value": 28.500095, "relative_strength": -20.012448, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.444611, "energy": 13.688606, "activity_lines": [ 27.000667, 26.751818, 26.380143, 26.936366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.9, "volume": 33678004, "typical_volume": 26329793.45, "trend": 27.468667, "fair_value": 28.411612, "relative_strength": -29.150646, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.369677, "energy": 48.570097, "activity_lines": [ 24.929333, 25.699818, 25.842667, 26.497419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.030001, "volume": 87819447, "typical_volume": 29307107.85, "trend": 27.337, "fair_value": 28.357551, "relative_strength": -14.662505, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.980141, "energy": 38.797957, "activity_lines": [ 24.537334, 25.528546, 25.742143, 26.340086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.18, "volume": 97617542, "typical_volume": 31589756.7, "trend": 27.446667, "fair_value": 28.352656, "relative_strength": 12.032326, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.762633, "energy": 5.049428, "activity_lines": [ 26.855334, 26.681273, 26.338143, 26.652538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.59, "volume": 105895622, "typical_volume": 35031211.8, "trend": 27.493333, "fair_value": 28.349618, "relative_strength": 1.952649, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.351077, "energy": 19.209572, "activity_lines": [ 28.321334, 27.431273, 26.774857, 26.855333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }