{ "ticker": { "uuid": "402b5365-9dbe-499b-84f0-95b52b2e4305", "symbol": "ALLGO", "name": "Largo SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.496, "architecture_energy": 55.201, "architecture_maturity": 14.64, "architecture_confidence": 87.491, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.46, "rotation_up": 14.88, "upward_expansion": 10.62, "deceleration": 40.57, "rotation_down": 64.33, "downward_expansion": 86.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.384333, 1.405, 1.44381, 1.45386 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.37, "trend_reference": 1.494, "distance_from_trend": -0.082999, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.035833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.327057, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.822115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.217143, "excess_performance": -0.270454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082999, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104943, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.327057, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068891, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268221, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019048, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.601618, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13397, "relative_activity": 0.393765, "balance": 1.601618, "dry_up": 0.460992, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058675, "annualized_volatility": 0.554074, "from_high_reference": -0.438525, "from_low_reference": 0.201754 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.494, "fair_value_reference": 2.035833, "structural_low": 1.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.058058, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.041934, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.381579, "worst_return": -0.201681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.087948, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.116364, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.726236, "worst_return": -0.414254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.171598, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.218741, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.235, "worst_return": -0.585174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087156, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008511, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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"relative_strength": -25.400837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.541874, "energy": 58.852809, "activity_lines": [ 1.406, 1.437636, 1.462667, 1.47957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.395, "volume": 38917, "typical_volume": 39190.75, "trend": 1.521833, "fair_value": 2.044679, "relative_strength": -24.307588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.734103, "energy": 61.570304, "activity_lines": [ 1.396, 1.426364, 1.457167, 1.470688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.4, "volume": 7019, "typical_volume": 35005.7, "trend": 1.509, "fair_value": 2.040192, "relative_strength": -24.388422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.730198, "energy": 63.480386, "activity_lines": [ 1.394333, 1.417636, 1.452381, 1.462828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.37, "volume": 13397, "typical_volume": 34022.85, "trend": 1.494, "fair_value": 2.035833, "relative_strength": -26.822115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.495649, "energy": 55.20106, "activity_lines": [ 1.384333, 1.405, 1.44381, 1.45386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }