{ "ticker": { "uuid": "402edb71-2f27-4cac-b061-dd6aa56d0a5c", "symbol": "SKUK", "name": "iShares $ Sukuk UCITS ETF USD Dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.504, "architecture_energy": 12.705, "architecture_maturity": 13.078, "architecture_confidence": 47.69, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.37, "rotation_up": 20.77, "upward_expansion": 22.8, "deceleration": 61.46, "rotation_down": 47.82, "downward_expansion": 31.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.056973, 5.066804, 5.067023, 5.06284 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.0734, "trend_reference": 5.062443, "distance_from_trend": 0.002164, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.927215, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029669, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.479247, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000696, "excess_performance": -0.08358, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002164, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00126, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029669, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094792, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073294, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000696, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.40494, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 164079, "relative_activity": 4.990063, "balance": 2.40494, "dry_up": 3.478353, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006602, "annualized_volatility": 0.048467, "from_high_reference": -0.012383, "from_low_reference": 0.028243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.062443, "fair_value_reference": 4.927215, "structural_low": 4.949667, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.002948, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026575, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.013302, "worst_return": -0.015674, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.005019, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.087083, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.005019, "worst_return": 0.005019, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.289985, "energy": 15.311183, "activity_lines": [ 5.053493, 5.066825, 5.065096, 5.062111 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.0734, "volume": 164079, "typical_volume": 32881.15, "trend": 5.062443, "fair_value": 4.927215, "relative_strength": -9.479247, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.503917, "energy": 12.704837, "activity_lines": [ 5.056973, 5.066804, 5.067023, 5.06284 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }