{ "ticker": { "uuid": "402f53d1-147c-4916-8c6b-6130dec9483c", "symbol": "TECS", "name": "DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BEAR 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.017, "architecture_energy": 58.628, "architecture_maturity": 99.454, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.0, "rotation_up": 29.87, "upward_expansion": 15.61, "deceleration": 40.57, "rotation_down": 44.59, "downward_expansion": 75.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.07, 70.447411, 78.411751, 99.563924 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 60.22, "trend_reference": 125.558651, "distance_from_trend": -0.520384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 498.143686, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.879111, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -65.354357, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.660904, "excess_performance": -0.786529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.520384, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212351, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.879111, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022651, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.653544, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.660904, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.493467, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2026551, "relative_activity": 0.069926, "balance": 0.493467, "dry_up": 0.235719, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.24038, "annualized_volatility": 0.829789, "from_high_reference": -0.760239, "from_low_reference": 0.028266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.558651, "fair_value_reference": 498.143686, "structural_low": 58.564607, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.041027, "positive_rate": 0.404255, "directional_follow_through": 0.595745, "median_excess_return": -0.068891, "regime_survival": 0.851064, "best_return": 0.388412, "worst_return": -0.406584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.155004, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": -0.160824, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.278865, "worst_return": -0.463611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.325263, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.402731, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.360998, "worst_return": 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70.452237, 94.110256, 115.38332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 77.11, "volume": 21838017, "typical_volume": 32340516.15, "trend": 134.990207, "fair_value": 521.260416, "relative_strength": -56.97517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.397181, "energy": 58.863674, "activity_lines": [ 71.325919, 71.11411, 89.849306, 111.452012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.33, "volume": 1530369, "typical_volume": 30620372.35, "trend": 132.140773, "fair_value": 514.406697, "relative_strength": -56.219528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.008703, "energy": 53.864419, "activity_lines": [ 73.512667, 71.804115, 86.03058, 107.667483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.31, "volume": 1931010, "typical_volume": 29696614.55, "trend": 128.994388, "fair_value": 506.649278, "relative_strength": -56.191865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.06673, "energy": 49.430632, "activity_lines": [ 74.406667, 72.463921, 82.660292, 104.000981 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.22, "volume": 2026551, "typical_volume": 28981464.85, "trend": 125.558651, "fair_value": 498.143686, "relative_strength": -65.354357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.016696, "energy": 58.628039, "activity_lines": [ 70.07, 70.447411, 78.411751, 99.563924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }