{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4031834e-9696-42a3-b982-1b32dd31e5fe", "symbol": "SEDY", "name": "iShares EM Dividend UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.185, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.124, "architecture_energy": 16.094, "architecture_maturity": 41.51, "architecture_confidence": 55.066, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.14, "rotation_up": 39.46, "upward_expansion": 28.26, "deceleration": 36.11, "rotation_down": 23.68, "downward_expansion": 50.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 1417.1, 1405.368578, 1412.480787, 1418.364005 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1428.5, "trend_reference": 1420.712216, "distance_from_trend": 0.005482, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1229.04908, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.162281, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.431319, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005721, "excess_performance": -0.045514, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005482, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021457, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.162281, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050172, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082364, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005721, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.783825, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121332, "relative_activity": 1.363063, "balance": 0.783825, "dry_up": 1.100605, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028214, "annualized_volatility": 0.120427, "from_high_reference": -0.154092, "from_low_reference": 0.18125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1420.712216, "fair_value_reference": 1229.04908, "structural_low": 1350.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.026151, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.004948, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.037901, "worst_return": 0.014401, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.030813, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.030507, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.030813, "worst_return": 0.030813, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.058289, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00279, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058289, "worst_return": 0.058289, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016735, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014463, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.370369, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005029, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", 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"stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.124205, "energy": 16.093531, "activity_lines": [ 1417.1, 1405.368578, 1412.480787, 1418.364005 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }