{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4033572a-bc81-4db9-84da-af9f18a9d1a3", "symbol": "PPIH", "name": "Perma-Pipe International Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.093, "architecture_energy": 44.355, "architecture_maturity": 20.528, "architecture_confidence": 94.872, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.9, "rotation_up": 18.95, "upward_expansion": 6.14, "deceleration": 48.28, "rotation_down": 59.15, "downward_expansion": 81.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.34, 25.784545, 27.711619, 28.603247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 26.45, "trend_reference": 29.606, "distance_from_trend": -0.1066, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.36479, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.523197, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.176025, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15925, "excess_performance": -0.346703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1066, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.523197, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.607294, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20176, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.252415, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15925, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.265761, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 338472, "relative_activity": 0.647395, "balance": 0.265761, "dry_up": 0.673899, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118685, "annualized_volatility": 0.508759, "from_high_reference": -0.279684, "from_low_reference": 0.204463 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.606, "fair_value_reference": 17.36479, "structural_low": 23.035, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.005269, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.016918, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.275202, "worst_return": -0.189125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.097714, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.027541, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.908863, "worst_return": -0.220674, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.063224, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003335, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.065217, "worst_return": -0.037166, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136288, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.331029, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.110413, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042535, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.43672, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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16.834597, "relative_strength": -23.043583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.667914, "energy": 67.401388, "activity_lines": [ 27.133333, 28.645091, 29.828381, 30.225591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.08, "volume": 393055, "typical_volume": 541661.45, "trend": 30.505333, "fair_value": 16.940174, "relative_strength": -25.277271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.656838, "energy": 65.922815, "activity_lines": [ 26.247333, 27.76, 29.326048, 29.859419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.42, "volume": 374669, "typical_volume": 532127.7, "trend": 30.278, "fair_value": 17.047931, "relative_strength": -20.836612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.379647, "energy": 69.717813, "activity_lines": [ 25.879333, 27.082364, 28.897714, 29.531333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.11, "volume": 251073, "typical_volume": 520950.3, "trend": 30.015667, "fair_value": 17.157867, "relative_strength": -20.338766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.084267, "energy": 71.219368, "activity_lines": [ 25.404, 26.500364, 28.472952, 29.197914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.15, "volume": 445102, "typical_volume": 523709.4, "trend": 29.801667, "fair_value": 17.254597, "relative_strength": -23.70329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.099387, "energy": 68.45983, "activity_lines": [ 24.871333, 25.868909, 27.973333, 28.819484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.45, "volume": 338472, "typical_volume": 522821.35, "trend": 29.606, "fair_value": 17.36479, "relative_strength": -20.176025, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.093311, "energy": 44.355406, "activity_lines": [ 25.34, 25.784545, 27.711619, 28.603247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }