{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40367d00-c2ee-4084-ab69-352a32f1de88", "symbol": "SWTI", "name": "Leverage Shares 2x Short WTI Oil ETC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.966, "architecture_energy": 58.969, "architecture_maturity": 83.226, "architecture_confidence": 67.982, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.69, "rotation_up": 11.62, "upward_expansion": 16.12, "deceleration": 62.64, "rotation_down": 67.9, "downward_expansion": 75.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.676067, 0.7731, 0.773048, 0.944876 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.701, "trend_reference": 1.396167, "distance_from_trend": -0.497911, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.79303, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.853746, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -75.181866, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.772771, "excess_performance": -0.824007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.497911, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.440448, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.853746, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018838, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.751819, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05788, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.772771, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.138883, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6044, "relative_activity": 0.106575, "balance": 1.138883, "dry_up": 0.492518, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.206713, "annualized_volatility": 1.340029, "from_high_reference": -0.864153, "from_low_reference": 0.3327 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.396167, "fair_value_reference": 4.79303, "structural_low": 0.526, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.034954, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.022459, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.427614, "worst_return": -0.491896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.105867, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.032012, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.26028, "worst_return": -0.772447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.106838, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.215004, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.080653, "worst_return": -0.772771, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.474924, "energy": 32.043773, "activity_lines": [ 0.985467, 0.880755, 0.857879, 1.207408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.73, "volume": 15820, "typical_volume": 65185.85, "trend": 1.7317, "fair_value": 4.925769, "relative_strength": -75.443356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.099866, "energy": 34.804315, "activity_lines": [ 0.914167, 0.867255, 0.833112, 1.135029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6, "volume": 76595, "typical_volume": 66364.4, "trend": 1.619867, "fair_value": 4.879407, "relative_strength": -79.544153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.411659, "energy": 57.303478, "activity_lines": [ 0.8008, 0.829609, 0.805821, 1.062016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.603, "volume": 13266, "typical_volume": 59501.6, "trend": 1.4998, "fair_value": 4.835436, "relative_strength": -79.171301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.589363, "energy": 64.627108, "activity_lines": [ 0.7067, 0.792382, 0.783424, 0.996412 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.701, "volume": 6044, "typical_volume": 56711.1, "trend": 1.396167, "fair_value": 4.79303, "relative_strength": -75.181866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.966071, "energy": 58.968656, "activity_lines": [ 0.676067, 0.7731, 0.773048, 0.944876 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }