{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4038ae97-bd04-4072-9ac5-abafd4ee7439", "symbol": "6629", "name": "Thai Kin Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.166, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.706, "architecture_energy": 27.763, "architecture_maturity": 8.652, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.64, "rotation_up": 21.13, "upward_expansion": 4.79, "deceleration": 46.66, "rotation_down": 49.23, "downward_expansion": 75.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 106.666667, 106.907323, 109.480893, 109.771049 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 110.5, "trend_reference": 110.703883, "distance_from_trend": -0.001842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 91.65349, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205628, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.053098, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074946, "excess_performance": -0.516318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048502, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205628, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254358, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.300531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116925, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074946, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.35919, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 204046, "relative_activity": 0.82686, "balance": 0.35919, "dry_up": 0.470133, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062491, "annualized_volatility": 0.307952, "from_high_reference": -0.271348, "from_low_reference": 0.490849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 110.703883, "fair_value_reference": 91.65349, "structural_low": 97.296005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.00312, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": 0.002847, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.39521, "worst_return": -0.121951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.015818, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.002509, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.691919, "worst_return": -0.192064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.032899, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.10116, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.642617, "worst_return": -0.26029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 108.0, "volume": 134020, "typical_volume": 296011.5, "trend": 113.145844, "fair_value": 89.512721, "relative_strength": -32.46697, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.654276, "energy": 34.482098, "activity_lines": [ 108.826849, 110.957818, 111.559757, 111.732713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 105.0, "volume": 141244, "typical_volume": 262273.5, "trend": 112.586051, "fair_value": 89.937802, "relative_strength": -29.858157, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.941162, "energy": 45.713724, "activity_lines": [ 107.38795, 109.505494, 111.062286, 111.207175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 106.5, "volume": 64000, "typical_volume": 247872.8, "trend": 112.028868, "fair_value": 90.366674, "relative_strength": -30.132823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.91179, "energy": 44.472095, "activity_lines": [ 106.866667, 108.501094, 110.703098, 110.814526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.5, "volume": 113017, "typical_volume": 241070.75, "trend": 111.303278, "fair_value": 90.759472, "relative_strength": -32.988148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.482972, "energy": 59.701005, "activity_lines": [ 104.566667, 106.746377, 109.772231, 110.070728 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 107.0, "volume": 83000, "typical_volume": 238720.0, "trend": 110.841746, "fair_value": 91.196059, "relative_strength": -30.135721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.625081, "energy": 48.699881, "activity_lines": [ 104.966667, 106.456766, 109.472679, 109.793097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 110.5, "volume": 204046, "typical_volume": 246772.25, "trend": 110.703883, "fair_value": 91.65349, "relative_strength": -30.053098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.705816, "energy": 27.763216, "activity_lines": [ 106.666667, 106.907323, 109.480893, 109.771049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }