{ "ticker": { "uuid": "403c05ba-2b54-4b80-b523-18d0e1b45347", "symbol": "HMCT", "name": "HSBC MSCI CHINA A UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.417, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.327, "architecture_energy": 34.891, "architecture_maturity": 23.989, "architecture_confidence": 64.52, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.01, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 16.72, "deceleration": 71.17, "rotation_down": 64.67, "downward_expansion": 41.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.507467, 12.662873, 12.763435, 12.692219 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.716, "trend_reference": 12.603768, "distance_from_trend": 0.008905, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.111525, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257575, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.904707, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031963, "excess_performance": -0.05092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008905, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025696, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257575, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077015, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166805, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031963, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.927598, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20, "relative_activity": 0.021054, "balance": 0.927598, "dry_up": 0.431602, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023254, "annualized_volatility": 0.160438, "from_high_reference": -0.055275, "from_low_reference": 0.229664 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.603768, "fair_value_reference": 10.111525, "structural_low": 11.566754, "invalidation": "A 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12.707513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.482, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1047.95, "trend": 12.58321, "fair_value": 10.074118, "relative_strength": -6.234363, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.892697, "energy": 22.579741, "activity_lines": [ 12.613333, 12.780764, 12.794573, 12.702265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.304, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 977.95, "trend": 12.592499, "fair_value": 10.089858, "relative_strength": -7.686508, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.674957, "energy": 40.994713, "activity_lines": [ 12.463867, 12.678764, 12.759032, 12.684251 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.716, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 949.95, "trend": 12.603768, "fair_value": 10.111525, "relative_strength": -5.904707, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.327099, "energy": 34.891182, "activity_lines": [ 12.507467, 12.662873, 12.763435, 12.692219 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }