{ "ticker": { "uuid": "403e0c19-9810-47db-83fe-ce3a6f056e72", "symbol": "002537", "name": "HyUnion Holding Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.106, "architecture_energy": 55.953, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.072, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.23, "rotation_up": 27.75, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 49.52, "downward_expansion": 74.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.612667, 5.574364, 6.020333, 6.567871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.8, "trend_reference": 7.313333, "distance_from_trend": -0.206928, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.919359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161772, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.834697, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.337143, "excess_performance": -0.344543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206928, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115608, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161772, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230734, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.308347, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002987, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.337143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.445838, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126512037, "relative_activity": 1.101634, "balance": 0.445838, "dry_up": 1.292384, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075862, "annualized_volatility": 0.310385, "from_high_reference": -0.506803, "from_low_reference": 0.139489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.313333, "fair_value_reference": 6.919359, "structural_low": 5.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.001462, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.015761, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.225296, "worst_return": -0.181333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.031384, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.015112, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.55, "worst_return": -0.339506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024679, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.043648, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.530165, "worst_return": -0.258706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 5.35, "volume": 98306017, "typical_volume": 157889539.75, "trend": 7.713667, "fair_value": 6.950321, "relative_strength": -43.290051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.228901, "energy": 92.293928, "activity_lines": [ 5.500667, 5.829273, 6.52619, 7.088215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.27, "volume": 112835155, "typical_volume": 151590818.15, "trend": 7.624, "fair_value": 6.940962, "relative_strength": -37.473311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.256117, "energy": 87.88157, "activity_lines": [ 5.390667, 5.662, 6.345095, 6.930559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.3, "volume": 217558765, "typical_volume": 148885363.9, "trend": 7.525667, "fair_value": 6.931987, "relative_strength": -36.229809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.602382, "energy": 68.843392, "activity_lines": [ 5.336667, 5.540727, 6.186952, 6.780624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.85, "volume": 136765109, "typical_volume": 139630279.8, "trend": 7.422, "fair_value": 6.926026, "relative_strength": -27.551535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.83047, "energy": 64.862581, "activity_lines": [ 5.499333, 5.553636, 6.099571, 6.672516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.8, "volume": 126512037, "typical_volume": 114840309.65, "trend": 7.313333, "fair_value": 6.919359, "relative_strength": -30.834697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.105853, "energy": 55.953432, "activity_lines": [ 5.612667, 5.574364, 6.020333, 6.567871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }