{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "403f3a7b-7cf1-4b3e-beeb-32f125297c58",
    "symbol": "BHD",
    "name": "Burgenland Holding Aktiengesellschaft",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 55.99,
    "architecture_energy": 52.783,
    "architecture_maturity": 21.942,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.707,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.",
        "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 33.33,
        "rotation_up": 64.05,
        "upward_expansion": 83.17,
        "deceleration": 47.81,
        "rotation_down": 14.48,
        "downward_expansion": 12.17
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        83.866667,
        83.418182,
        83.140476,
        82.758044
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 84.0,
    "trend_reference": 82.009617,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.02427,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 68.899092,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.219174,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -10.847448,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.16056,
    "excess_performance": -0.013686,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02427,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054762,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.219174,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00199,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.108474,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.068174,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.16056,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 10.130435,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3,
      "relative_activity": 0.029354,
      "balance": 10.130435,
      "dry_up": 0.902642,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.020147,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.229966,
      "from_high_reference": -0.023256,
      "from_low_reference": 0.24229
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 82.009617,
      "fair_value_reference": 68.899092,
      "structural_low": 75.0,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.002632,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011088,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
        "best_return": 0.178082,
        "worst_return": -0.010152,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.020833,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.0386,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.180556,
        "worst_return": 0.009836,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.029398,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.026173,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.225036,
        "worst_return": -0.015789,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.000245,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004982,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.011692,
        "worst_return": -0.011202,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-05-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.020548,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-06-07",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.027397,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2024-09-20",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2024-10-25",
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        "return": 0.020979,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "return": 0.007092,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.042857,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.020833,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.045226,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.695241,
        "energy": 57.177872,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.833333,
          83.159919,
          81.408296,
          79.088279
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 82.5,
        "volume": 48,
        "typical_volume": 156.55,
        "trend": 76.471421,
        "fair_value": 67.779411,
        "relative_strength": -4.03002,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.941972,
        "energy": 46.918727,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.466667,
          83.228877,
          81.713312,
          79.501033
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 82.5,
        "volume": 230,
        "typical_volume": 164.4,
        "trend": 76.856411,
        "fair_value": 67.824296,
        "relative_strength": -3.549282,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.56058,
        "energy": 41.0939,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.1,
          83.226364,
          81.958793,
          79.889974
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 84.0,
        "volume": 52,
        "typical_volume": 154.0,
        "trend": 77.370764,
        "fair_value": 67.878797,
        "relative_strength": -3.718519,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.043434,
        "energy": 39.696034,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.3,
          83.381818,
          82.285331,
          80.350851
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 80.0,
        "volume": 23,
        "typical_volume": 139.95,
        "trend": 77.751784,
        "fair_value": 67.924155,
        "relative_strength": -10.589815,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.922356,
        "energy": 18.150967,
        "activity_lines": [
          82.166667,
          82.754545,
          82.16424,
          80.520479
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 82.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 133.4,
        "trend": 78.13598,
        "fair_value": 67.998833,
        "relative_strength": -7.168882,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.778705,
        "energy": 18.263499,
        "activity_lines": [
          81.966667,
          82.581818,
          82.220009,
          80.794557
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 84.0,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 134.15,
        "trend": 78.555097,
        "fair_value": 68.09733,
        "relative_strength": -7.352059,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.569611,
        "energy": 24.402552,
        "activity_lines": [
          82.566667,
          82.781818,
          82.458987,
          81.172881
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 84.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 130.75,
        "trend": 79.085323,
        "fair_value": 68.184828,
        "relative_strength": -10.897319,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.161232,
        "energy": 29.48074,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.066667,
          82.954545,
          82.687976,
          81.524165
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 82.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 127.5,
        "trend": 79.533009,
        "fair_value": 68.234758,
        "relative_strength": -11.073979,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.349764,
        "energy": 29.44576,
        "activity_lines": [
          82.8,
          82.754545,
          82.711965,
          81.712209
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 82.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 123.5,
        "trend": 79.964823,
        "fair_value": 68.314935,
        "relative_strength": -12.896168,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.0972,
        "energy": 23.642766,
        "activity_lines": [
          82.666667,
          82.590909,
          82.690139,
          81.87137
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 82.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 121.65,
        "trend": 80.364892,
        "fair_value": 68.411611,
        "relative_strength": -11.569059,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.212351,
        "energy": 12.470707,
        "activity_lines": [
          82.4,
          82.463636,
          82.663312,
          82.002671
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 84.0,
        "volume": 81,
        "typical_volume": 125.55,
        "trend": 80.831627,
        "fair_value": 68.532106,
        "relative_strength": -7.523934,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.17151,
        "energy": 20.250406,
        "activity_lines": [
          82.8,
          82.736364,
          82.82423,
          82.237194
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 84.0,
        "volume": 200,
        "typical_volume": 132.1,
        "trend": 81.314235,
        "fair_value": 68.652601,
        "relative_strength": -8.660792,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.822287,
        "energy": 28.772664,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.2,
          82.981818,
          82.959286,
          82.441606
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 84.0,
        "volume": 85,
        "typical_volume": 112.65,
        "trend": 81.78097,
        "fair_value": 68.773097,
        "relative_strength": -8.369175,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.624878,
        "energy": 38.609594,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.6,
          83.2,
          83.057143,
          82.614881
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 84.0,
        "volume": 3,
        "typical_volume": 102.2,
        "trend": 82.009617,
        "fair_value": 68.899092,
        "relative_strength": -10.847448,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.990202,
        "energy": 52.782766,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.866667,
          83.418182,
          83.140476,
          82.758044
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}