{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4042e8ed-d0db-42bc-88a3-8fe0f9974782", "symbol": "A1PA34", "name": "APA Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.945, "architecture_energy": 14.516, "architecture_maturity": 57.434, "architecture_confidence": 66.147, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.34, "rotation_up": 42.59, "upward_expansion": 47.18, "deceleration": 64.78, "rotation_down": 13.68, "downward_expansion": 27.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 182.049638, 179.581767, 183.476153, 183.620901 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 187.339996, "trend_reference": 177.871107, "distance_from_trend": 0.053235, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 147.785551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267648, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.897477, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.351671, "excess_performance": 0.408719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053235, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096726, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267648, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027882, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.168975, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034695, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.351671, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.222072, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 258, "relative_activity": 0.595912, "balance": 0.222072, "dry_up": 1.041113, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063694, "annualized_volatility": 0.510579, "from_high_reference": -0.195549, "from_low_reference": 0.752243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 177.871107, "fair_value_reference": 147.785551, "structural_low": 138.598816, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.030486, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.033069, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.240679, "worst_return": -0.119499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053045, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009212, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.372591, "worst_return": -0.207951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.22894, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.248609, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.520295, "worst_return": -0.123642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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39.903587, "activity_lines": [ 174.602456, 180.377239, 186.36563, 181.600102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 179.579742, "volume": 764, "typical_volume": 453.1, "trend": 172.891386, "fair_value": 147.78092, "relative_strength": 13.131048, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.095027, "energy": 33.357636, "activity_lines": [ 175.400219, 179.535697, 185.574184, 182.136071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 182.589996, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 419.25, "trend": 174.610896, "fair_value": 147.85429, "relative_strength": 14.152986, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.76868, "energy": 11.378792, "activity_lines": [ 178.489416, 179.41275, 184.945954, 182.761788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 176.649994, "volume": 774, "typical_volume": 455.95, "trend": 176.062835, "fair_value": 147.87408, "relative_strength": 7.516895, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.202073, "energy": 8.879395, "activity_lines": [ 178.770339, 178.248168, 183.707728, 182.893342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 187.339996, "volume": 258, "typical_volume": 432.95, "trend": 177.871107, "fair_value": 147.785551, "relative_strength": 16.897477, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.94466, "energy": 14.515516, "activity_lines": [ 182.049638, 179.581767, 183.476153, 183.620901 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }