{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40457011-baaf-4e8e-810b-b08c813cd811", "symbol": "HLIT", "name": "Harmonic Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.337, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.95, "architecture_energy": 21.138, "architecture_maturity": 48.981, "architecture_confidence": 80.737, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.67, "rotation_up": 14.95, "upward_expansion": 41.66, "deceleration": 86.53, "rotation_down": 45.63, "downward_expansion": 35.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.805333, 12.703636, 12.990857, 12.403118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.84, "trend_reference": 11.658667, "distance_from_trend": 0.015554, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.222019, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055069, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.167268, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.172277, "excess_performance": -0.015176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015554, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112787, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055069, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041673, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128967, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172277, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.43126, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5384533, "relative_activity": 0.476727, "balance": 0.43126, "dry_up": 0.591277, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17296, "annualized_volatility": 0.552549, "from_high_reference": -0.330317, "from_low_reference": 0.398701 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.658667, "fair_value_reference": 11.222019, "structural_low": 8.465, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.039563, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018163, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.19268, "worst_return": -0.333971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.079229, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.093355, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.298889, "worst_return": -0.384321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.065201, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.017319, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.399358, "worst_return": -0.224347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.00458, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.309611, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.23, "worst_return": -0.227445, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144158, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176999, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097297, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031425, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030146, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014202, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170253, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.140167, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117592, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007519, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059783, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06089, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058088, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.67, "volume": 8073372, "typical_volume": 7692870.6, "trend": 14.615, "fair_value": 10.418429, "relative_strength": -34.877545, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.216376, "energy": 84.229884, "activity_lines": [ 11.587333, 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11.421333, "fair_value": 11.256891, "relative_strength": 13.796865, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.483667, "energy": 40.215355, "activity_lines": [ 14.421333, 14.395455, 13.198381, 12.365914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.03, "volume": 8144239, "typical_volume": 11285054.5, "trend": 11.493, "fair_value": 11.234006, "relative_strength": 1.577939, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.575787, "energy": 20.005575, "activity_lines": [ 13.562667, 14.001636, 13.194429, 12.405183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.19, "volume": 6413117, "typical_volume": 11261965.4, "trend": 11.534, "fair_value": 11.209968, "relative_strength": -4.025865, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.481881, "energy": 17.135828, "activity_lines": [ 12.617333, 13.469273, 13.10381, 12.385634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.55, "volume": 6771533, "typical_volume": 11339614.0, "trend": 11.585, "fair_value": 11.213109, "relative_strength": -1.663508, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.778935, "energy": 17.455303, "activity_lines": [ 12.051333, 13.026909, 13.038857, 12.386667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.84, "volume": 5384533, "typical_volume": 11294798.05, "trend": 11.658667, "fair_value": 11.222019, "relative_strength": -4.167268, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.950087, "energy": 21.137872, "activity_lines": [ 11.805333, 12.703636, 12.990857, 12.403118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }