{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "4045799f-c3d9-4b23-bb7e-dbae5c93e207",
    "symbol": "ENGS",
    "name": "WisdomTree Natural Gas - EUR Daily Hedged",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -81.589,
    "architecture_energy": 87.211,
    "architecture_maturity": 49.553,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.964,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 4.86,
        "rotation_up": 9.25,
        "upward_expansion": 20.0,
        "deceleration": 37.16,
        "rotation_down": 84.03,
        "downward_expansion": 98.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.172793,
        0.180793,
        0.187521,
        0.194552
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 0.1659,
    "trend_reference": 0.205937,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.194413,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.315204,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.473674,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -36.79967,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.34349,
    "excess_performance": -0.514382,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.194413,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.091803,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.473674,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021884,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.367997,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.026837,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.34349,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.920061,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 456017,
      "relative_activity": 0.383858,
      "balance": 0.920061,
      "dry_up": 0.606306,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.068809,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.343739,
      "from_high_reference": -0.473333,
      "from_low_reference": 0.017791
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.205937,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.315204,
      "structural_low": 0.163,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 34,
        "median_return": -0.016521,
        "positive_rate": 0.352941,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.647059,
        "median_excess_return": -0.032765,
        "regime_survival": 0.823529,
        "best_return": 0.309326,
        "worst_return": -0.309675,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": -0.082474,
        "positive_rate": 0.461538,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.538462,
        "median_excess_return": -0.144129,
        "regime_survival": 0.769231,
        "best_return": 0.492439,
        "worst_return": -0.589145,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.122572,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.173357,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.695051,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.415754,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.550224,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": -0.143155,
        "worst_return": -0.55486,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2024-06-07",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.19391,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.284047,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.00224,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
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      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-06-20",
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        "return": 0.040383,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 494180,
        "typical_volume": 1536352.55,
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        "relative_strength": -29.375459,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.1696,
        "volume": 1584635,
        "typical_volume": 1275722.65,
        "trend": 0.20684,
        "fair_value": 0.31817,
        "relative_strength": -34.308762,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -81.262265,
        "energy": 85.278317,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.177693,
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          0.190276,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.1659,
        "volume": 456017,
        "typical_volume": 1187984.85,
        "trend": 0.205937,
        "fair_value": 0.315204,
        "relative_strength": -36.79967,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -81.589332,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}