{ "ticker": { "uuid": "404e5db3-c6e0-4c7f-a2c9-f9d11cf49591", "symbol": "002172", "name": "Jiangsu Aoyang Health Industry Co.ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.757, "architecture_energy": 33.496, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.558, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.08, "rotation_up": 27.7, "upward_expansion": 18.21, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 32.4, "downward_expansion": 65.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.148, 3.087091, 3.23181, 3.437032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.29, "trend_reference": 3.716667, "distance_from_trend": -0.114798, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.544167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071714, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.463515, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.236659, "excess_performance": -0.244059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114798, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092832, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071714, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137735, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055911, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.236659, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.670523, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77474650, "relative_activity": 1.089812, "balance": 0.670523, "dry_up": 1.479288, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075286, "annualized_volatility": 0.287092, "from_high_reference": -0.367308, "from_low_reference": 0.179211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.716667, "fair_value_reference": 3.544167, "structural_low": 2.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.009795, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.00547, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.293103, "worst_return": -0.167203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.016594, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024648, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.3125, "worst_return": -0.242347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.091667, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.156045, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.458333, "worst_return": -0.242902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10443, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069971, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14939, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047745, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043147, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.665031, "energy": 87.228654, "activity_lines": [ 2.974667, 3.107091, 3.387571, 3.606473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.09, "volume": 160543976, "typical_volume": 74984819.6, "trend": 3.809667, "fair_value": 3.553013, "relative_strength": -23.174504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.574035, "energy": 64.807753, "activity_lines": [ 3.004, 3.076909, 3.334619, 3.55828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.98, "volume": 102078964, "typical_volume": 72954870.15, "trend": 3.770333, "fair_value": 3.549808, "relative_strength": -25.568371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.204906, "energy": 61.039852, "activity_lines": [ 3.002667, 3.039818, 3.278, 3.504753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.17, "volume": 80552230, "typical_volume": 71840406.65, "trend": 3.739333, "fair_value": 3.547692, "relative_strength": -19.003402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.565975, "energy": 47.054814, "activity_lines": [ 3.066, 3.049455, 3.246571, 3.466022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.29, "volume": 77474650, "typical_volume": 71089910.5, "trend": 3.716667, "fair_value": 3.544167, "relative_strength": -19.463515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.757019, "energy": 33.496219, "activity_lines": [ 3.148, 3.087091, 3.23181, 3.437032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }