{ "ticker": { "uuid": "404e7a70-c822-4232-af75-52fc1f120049", "symbol": "EBUY", "name": "Amundi MSCI Digital Economy UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.819, "architecture_energy": 62.803, "architecture_maturity": 66.613, "architecture_confidence": 80.311, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.47, "rotation_up": 55.71, "upward_expansion": 83.62, "deceleration": 66.62, "rotation_down": 28.13, "downward_expansion": 10.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.3304, 20.144655, 19.719286, 18.918912 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.15, "trend_reference": 17.991433, "distance_from_trend": 0.175559, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.456812, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.285182, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.613857, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.326684, "excess_performance": 0.155792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.175559, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054369, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.285182, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096627, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026139, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027136, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.326684, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.200211, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3036, "relative_activity": 0.202833, "balance": 7.200211, "dry_up": 0.588958, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035374, "annualized_volatility": 0.21017, "from_high_reference": -0.015363, "from_low_reference": 0.428282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.991433, "fair_value_reference": 16.456812, "structural_low": 14.808, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.01355, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031059, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.011949, "worst_return": -0.03905, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002531, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102961, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": 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18.429632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.648001, "volume": 8389, "typical_volume": 15505.0, "trend": 17.7695, "fair_value": 16.380936, "relative_strength": -1.243804, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.411013, "energy": 50.164594, "activity_lines": [ 19.847333, 19.897636, 19.318895, 18.556159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.110001, "volume": 18836, "typical_volume": 15297.8, "trend": 17.867833, "fair_value": 16.414531, "relative_strength": 0.462338, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.279767, "energy": 52.164721, "activity_lines": [ 19.938667, 19.929255, 19.4795, 18.707159 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.15, "volume": 3036, "typical_volume": 14967.95, "trend": 17.991433, "fair_value": 16.456812, "relative_strength": 2.613857, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.818611, "energy": 62.802536, "activity_lines": [ 20.3304, 20.144655, 19.719286, 18.918912 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }