{ "ticker": { "uuid": "404f1012-6c39-4aad-ae16-0ae60a33aace", "symbol": "ESEA", "name": "Euroseas Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.764, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.669, "architecture_energy": 65.145, "architecture_maturity": 51.954, "architecture_confidence": 82.557, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.17, "rotation_up": 68.38, "upward_expansion": 87.76, "deceleration": 45.29, "rotation_down": 10.41, "downward_expansion": 14.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.456667, 72.671583, 70.428401, 68.689229 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 75.29, "trend_reference": 65.501986, "distance_from_trend": 0.149431, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.881015, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.04143, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.060052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.4402, "excess_performance": 0.252746, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.149431, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085715, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.04143, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213276, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.070601, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028626, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.4402, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.865821, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225253, "relative_activity": 0.662888, "balance": 0.865821, "dry_up": 0.675047, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088246, "annualized_volatility": 0.413754, "from_high_reference": -0.054977, "from_low_reference": 0.609089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.501986, "fair_value_reference": 36.881015, "structural_low": 52.033189, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.001642, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013902, "regime_survival": 0.735294, "best_return": 0.489126, "worst_return": -0.200897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.082412, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.020213, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.612649, "worst_return": -0.138035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.191224, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.136459, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.824196, "worst_return": -0.190333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.704768, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.461263, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.872271, "worst_return": 0.091248, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.294831, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091409, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.135761, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050958, "active": false }, { 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65.718923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 69.23, "volume": 238922, "typical_volume": 369273.4, "trend": 63.126303, "fair_value": 35.643631, "relative_strength": 3.83231, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.610299, "energy": 24.498149, "activity_lines": [ 68.495333, 67.96397, 67.746212, 66.148095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.99, "volume": 247493, "typical_volume": 353343.4, "trend": 63.920414, "fair_value": 36.058162, "relative_strength": 16.76053, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.822523, "energy": 51.227003, "activity_lines": [ 71.440667, 69.704932, 68.702342, 67.042527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.94, "volume": 205871, "typical_volume": 348685.6, "trend": 64.785713, "fair_value": 36.486814, "relative_strength": 18.455368, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.607077, "energy": 68.333025, "activity_lines": [ 74.476667, 71.651881, 69.778901, 68.011533 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.29, "volume": 225253, "typical_volume": 339805.7, "trend": 65.501986, "fair_value": 36.881015, "relative_strength": 7.060052, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.669479, "energy": 65.145497, "activity_lines": [ 75.456667, 72.671583, 70.428401, 68.689229 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }