{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40544d2c-a192-461e-acd8-dc6733e5208c", "symbol": "000589", "name": "Guizhou Tyre Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.064, "architecture_energy": 32.996, "architecture_maturity": 28.93, "architecture_confidence": 67.884, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.96, "rotation_up": 25.88, "upward_expansion": 16.4, "deceleration": 66.23, "rotation_down": 33.59, "downward_expansion": 61.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.3, 4.282713, 4.393408, 4.499338 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.31, "trend_reference": 4.662188, "distance_from_trend": -0.075541, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.991219, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.136483, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.802489, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.163107, "excess_performance": -0.170507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075541, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05093, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.136483, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111563, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118025, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036553, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.163107, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.258905, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 147670323, "relative_activity": 1.355018, "balance": 0.258905, "dry_up": 1.117345, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046427, "annualized_volatility": 0.242448, "from_high_reference": -0.188324, "from_low_reference": 0.05379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.662188, "fair_value_reference": 4.991219, "structural_low": 4.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015769, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.003599, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.119374, "worst_return": -0.078671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.051734, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.0596, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186561, "worst_return": -0.046875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.151575, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.133035, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.300341, "worst_return": 0.054688, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00883, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010965, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006608, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055679, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003819, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068136, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019868, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.113602, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 6.231615, "volume": 119551622, "typical_volume": 99676234.15, "trend": 4.915645, "fair_value": 4.406689, "relative_strength": 37.780914, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.88122, "energy": 93.571574, 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"direction": -64.312352, "energy": 77.243081, "activity_lines": [ 4.239333, 4.350002, 4.488896, 4.611945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.27, "volume": 123667602, "typical_volume": 117275688.55, "trend": 4.745854, "fair_value": 5.021733, "relative_strength": -10.322079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.594434, "energy": 61.011965, "activity_lines": [ 4.241333, 4.314243, 4.456822, 4.579611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.23, "volume": 111370437, "typical_volume": 112626143.05, "trend": 4.717188, "fair_value": 5.013977, "relative_strength": -11.088313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.418719, "energy": 48.07127, "activity_lines": [ 4.241333, 4.283213, 4.425367, 4.54633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.37, "volume": 104366312, "typical_volume": 109502379.85, "trend": 4.691188, "fair_value": 5.003417, "relative_strength": -6.326763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.148147, "energy": 39.443807, "activity_lines": [ 4.289333, 4.28591, 4.410768, 4.52393 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.31, "volume": 147670323, "typical_volume": 108980366.5, "trend": 4.662188, "fair_value": 4.991219, "relative_strength": -11.802489, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.063986, "energy": 32.996453, "activity_lines": [ 4.3, 4.282713, 4.393408, 4.499338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }