{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40555969-cb2a-4970-bcd4-b87d0a328044", "symbol": "41F", "name": "GSS Energy Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.557, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.542, "architecture_energy": 14.402, "architecture_maturity": 31.178, "architecture_confidence": 62.89, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.7, "rotation_up": 27.13, "upward_expansion": 48.13, "deceleration": 77.64, "rotation_down": 25.33, "downward_expansion": 26.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.013867, 0.013927, 0.013976, 0.013344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.013, "trend_reference": 0.012567, "distance_from_trend": 0.034483, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.01904, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.31722, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.103896, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.181818, "excess_performance": 0.026983, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034483, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056022, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.31722, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.343927, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181818, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.425294, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3566100, "relative_activity": 0.240525, "balance": 0.425294, "dry_up": 0.196257, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094675, "annualized_volatility": 0.719885, "from_high_reference": -0.277778, "from_low_reference": 0.625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.012567, "fair_value_reference": 0.01904, "structural_low": 0.009, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039933, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.014286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.133333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.17947, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.1, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.046429, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003085, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.157143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.328571, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.344445, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.328571, "worst_return": -0.328571, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.318182, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.478261, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"fair_value": 0.019655, "relative_strength": 3.130386, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.858764, "energy": 18.851613, "activity_lines": [ 0.013867, 0.014091, 0.01359, 0.01294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.014, "volume": 2712500, "typical_volume": 15221760.0, "trend": 0.0124, "fair_value": 0.019495, "relative_strength": 2.068318, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.456182, "energy": 18.420999, "activity_lines": [ 0.013867, 0.014036, 0.013719, 0.013049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.015, "volume": 3201100, "typical_volume": 15159385.0, "trend": 0.0125, "fair_value": 0.019341, "relative_strength": 7.340441, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.150228, "energy": 33.799978, "activity_lines": [ 0.014267, 0.014182, 0.013924, 0.013217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.014, "volume": 2159400, "typical_volume": 15009255.0, "trend": 0.012533, "fair_value": 0.019187, "relative_strength": -0.775113, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.867212, "energy": 34.474393, "activity_lines": [ 0.014267, 0.014145, 0.01401, 0.013314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.013, "volume": 3566100, "typical_volume": 14826325.0, "trend": 0.012567, "fair_value": 0.01904, "relative_strength": -9.103896, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.542237, "energy": 14.401587, "activity_lines": [ 0.013867, 0.013927, 0.013976, 0.013344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }