{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40565467-e6fc-4f85-9391-33a6d3bb9e4c", "symbol": "BRAN", "name": "Baran Group Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.846, "architecture_energy": 67.538, "architecture_maturity": 85.167, "architecture_confidence": 94.506, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.04, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.37, "rotation_down": 53.41, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.468, 24.600545, 619.323518, 1118.598625 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.75, "trend_reference": 1712.648073, "distance_from_trend": -0.986133, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1409.812078, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.983154, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.803864, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.9913, "excess_performance": -1.020201, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.986133, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.299275, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.983154, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.571784, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.848884, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.9913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.416607, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106490, "relative_activity": 0.941842, "balance": 0.416607, "dry_up": 1.290991, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.363466, "annualized_volatility": 6.37634, "from_high_reference": -0.991667, "from_low_reference": 0.180417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1712.648073, "fair_value_reference": 1409.812078, "structural_low": 20.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.014102, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.011548, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.102715, "worst_return": -0.111868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035551, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.010202, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.099408, "worst_return": -0.102352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.081762, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.027319, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.259156, "worst_return": -0.030969, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.694756, "energy": 89.021104, "activity_lines": [ 24.834, 411.291091, 1196.800131, 1609.263547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.02, "volume": 179906, "typical_volume": 101177.6, "trend": 1970.159073, "fair_value": 1426.400404, "relative_strength": -98.80763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.30264, "energy": 87.890707, "activity_lines": [ 24.926667, 253.867455, 1033.736549, 1479.200855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.9, "volume": 131814, "typical_volume": 104248.7, "trend": 1889.222407, "fair_value": 1420.92546, "relative_strength": -98.774004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.914365, "energy": 67.891951, "activity_lines": [ 25.252, 137.821636, 883.018587, 1353.764785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.02, "volume": 165657, "typical_volume": 109610.05, "trend": 1803.623073, "fair_value": 1415.417977, "relative_strength": -98.81011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.919184, "energy": 67.701441, "activity_lines": [ 24.857333, 61.817636, 744.912529, 1233.429146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.75, "volume": 106490, "typical_volume": 113065.7, "trend": 1712.648073, "fair_value": 1409.812078, "relative_strength": -98.803864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.846126, "energy": 67.538004, "activity_lines": [ 24.468, 24.600545, 619.323518, 1118.598625 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }