{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4057d401-39d2-461f-9e0c-b0b0a7096868", "symbol": "002346", "name": "Shanghai Zhezhong Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.244, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.14, "architecture_energy": 18.643, "architecture_maturity": 21.133, "architecture_confidence": 67.248, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.82, "rotation_up": 22.04, "upward_expansion": 7.77, "deceleration": 46.75, "rotation_down": 46.63, "downward_expansion": 71.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.635999, 18.834631, 18.879417, 19.081011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 20.469999, "trend_reference": 19.482776, "distance_from_trend": 0.050672, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.983154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.576658, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.299403, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024012, "excess_performance": 0.016612, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050672, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003887, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.576658, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096887, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.062994, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194905, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024012, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.458878, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38872929, "relative_activity": 1.461898, "balance": 2.458878, "dry_up": 1.614374, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1535, "annualized_volatility": 0.645354, "from_high_reference": -0.137742, "from_low_reference": 0.443582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.482776, "fair_value_reference": 12.983154, "structural_low": 15.435093, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.056813, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.029037, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.248823, "worst_return": -0.202335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.087186, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.104118, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.063981, "worst_return": -0.439689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.148522, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.051002, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.066577, "worst_return": -0.266612, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 16.66, "volume": 41211084, "typical_volume": 25773672.45, "trend": 19.589443, "fair_value": 12.890086, "relative_strength": -9.967086, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.346677, "energy": 16.82037, "activity_lines": [ 18.839554, 18.82966, 18.897686, 19.175649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.129999, "volume": 25745437, "typical_volume": 25676240.8, "trend": 19.477443, "fair_value": 12.925673, "relative_strength": -6.080455, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.902369, "energy": 32.433674, "activity_lines": [ 18.060909, 18.499236, 18.721242, 19.016975 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.469999, "volume": 38872929, "typical_volume": 26590731.15, "trend": 19.482776, "fair_value": 12.983154, "relative_strength": 6.299403, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.139586, "energy": 18.642631, "activity_lines": [ 18.635999, 18.834631, 18.879417, 19.081011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }