{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4057f1d0-73af-4bc2-b4ab-153637fb8a8b", "symbol": "SHC", "name": "Amundi CAC 40 Daily (-1x) Inverse UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.525, "architecture_energy": 70.764, "architecture_maturity": 23.317, "architecture_confidence": 94.604, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.87, "rotation_up": 20.75, "upward_expansion": 14.24, "deceleration": 40.68, "rotation_down": 60.06, "downward_expansion": 85.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.178, 9.230945, 9.371143, 9.486196 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.972, "trend_reference": 9.589867, "distance_from_trend": -0.064429, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.15697, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.116666, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.70299, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.066195, "excess_performance": -0.119506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064429, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016037, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.116666, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063716, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101575, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066195, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.65001, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 202726, "relative_activity": 0.435839, "balance": 0.65001, "dry_up": 0.635777, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022214, "annualized_volatility": 0.161299, "from_high_reference": -0.153585, "from_low_reference": 0.003579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.589867, "fair_value_reference": 10.15697, "structural_low": 8.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.002207, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": -0.006271, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.121834, "worst_return": -0.081724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.015348, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.02003, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.094153, "worst_return": -0.097061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.011196, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.042386, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.114466, "worst_return": -0.12201, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015708, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026189, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002378, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036539, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073162, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-03", 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"typical_volume": 529683.8, "trend": 9.6234, "fair_value": 10.174726, "relative_strength": -7.450985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.899216, "energy": 41.080526, "activity_lines": [ 9.324667, 9.332164, 9.473095, 9.556032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.176, "volume": 305649, "typical_volume": 508983.95, "trend": 9.607067, "fair_value": 10.166444, "relative_strength": -10.022344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.452471, "energy": 43.481419, "activity_lines": [ 9.281067, 9.296091, 9.429729, 9.527168 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.972, "volume": 202726, "typical_volume": 465139.25, "trend": 9.589867, "fair_value": 10.15697, "relative_strength": -13.70299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.524843, "energy": 70.764003, "activity_lines": [ 9.178, 9.230945, 9.371143, 9.486196 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }