{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40587cca-dcb4-49e2-bd97-bfa405951182", "symbol": "002079", "name": "Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.073, "architecture_energy": 44.189, "architecture_maturity": 27.281, "architecture_confidence": 63.859, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.05, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 21.56, "deceleration": 65.83, "rotation_down": 68.71, "downward_expansion": 44.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.445333, 10.818238, 11.429381, 11.297169 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.71, "trend_reference": 11.100211, "distance_from_trend": -0.125242, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.238455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.051615, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.630318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.092523, "excess_performance": -0.099923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125242, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057306, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.051615, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116303, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105098, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.092523, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.639509, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 228959723, "relative_activity": 1.167188, "balance": 0.639509, "dry_up": 1.39595, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15432, "annualized_volatility": 0.685407, "from_high_reference": -0.345246, "from_low_reference": 0.221384 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.100211, "fair_value_reference": 10.238455, "structural_low": 7.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021458, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023217, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.120419, "worst_return": -0.100787, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.008923, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007649, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.078534, "worst_return": -0.251181, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.027943, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.078615, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212185, "worst_return": -0.014605, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019569, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020388, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123357, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068224, "active": false }, { "regime": 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11.597256, "energy": 13.827425, "activity_lines": [ 12.322698, 12.560942, 12.115376, 11.700435 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.53, "volume": 281046647, "typical_volume": 183714307.55, "trend": 11.118545, "fair_value": 10.28842, "relative_strength": -20.329106, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.03123, "energy": 32.384514, "activity_lines": [ 10.846221, 11.815039, 11.829775, 11.531583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.87, "volume": 245115791, "typical_volume": 189796577.4, "trend": 11.094878, "fair_value": 10.257466, "relative_strength": -15.411094, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.36295, "energy": 45.339986, "activity_lines": [ 9.829333, 11.206501, 11.586173, 11.386516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.71, "volume": 228959723, "typical_volume": 196163456.95, "trend": 11.100211, "fair_value": 10.238455, "relative_strength": -11.630318, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.073242, "energy": 44.189347, "activity_lines": [ 9.445333, 10.818238, 11.429381, 11.297169 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }