{ "ticker": { "uuid": "405a4453-579f-4d24-b424-35997f2b0798", "symbol": "ALUVI", "name": "UV Germi SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 81.75, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.01, "architecture_energy": 51.81, "architecture_maturity": 13.651, "architecture_confidence": 77.265, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.72, "rotation_up": 68.87, "upward_expansion": 50.52, "deceleration": 20.16, "rotation_down": 17.44, "downward_expansion": 25.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.594, 2.514545, 2.470905, 2.473376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.78, "trend_reference": 2.537333, "distance_from_trend": 0.095638, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.991564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07072, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.185436, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.041379, "excess_performance": -0.094691, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095638, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058154, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07072, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10802, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012565, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041379, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.618015, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9302, "relative_activity": 1.418766, "balance": 1.618015, "dry_up": 0.636973, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055617, "annualized_volatility": 0.4572, "from_high_reference": -0.094463, "from_low_reference": 0.482667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.537333, "fair_value_reference": 2.991564, "structural_low": 2.14, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.073607, "positive_rate": 0.210526, "directional_follow_through": 0.210526, "median_excess_return": -0.075084, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.105814, "worst_return": -0.293296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.105488, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.104863, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.155844, "worst_return": -0.41352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.127907, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.203239, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.558442, "worst_return": -0.397077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.184908, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.235969, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.22, "worst_return": -0.620585, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014388, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003922, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.165992, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015094, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10687, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003448, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003401, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082609, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098814, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.85, "volume": 14679, "typical_volume": 29182.1, "trend": 4.4955, "fair_value": 6.729006, "relative_strength": 9.440326, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", 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2.403905, 2.47086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.49, "volume": 2429, "typical_volume": 8233.2, "trend": 2.571667, "fair_value": 3.049449, "relative_strength": -7.620246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.127198, "energy": 11.25756, "activity_lines": [ 2.432, 2.418545, 2.411048, 2.46443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.53, "volume": 2322, "typical_volume": 7449.45, "trend": 2.556667, "fair_value": 3.027846, "relative_strength": -5.995732, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.623185, "energy": 8.087326, "activity_lines": [ 2.47, 2.436182, 2.424667, 2.461742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.5, "volume": 2652, "typical_volume": 6598.65, "trend": 2.543, "fair_value": 3.006692, "relative_strength": -8.265775, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.328654, "energy": 13.959599, "activity_lines": [ 2.489333, 2.450727, 2.43481, 2.458086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.78, "volume": 9302, "typical_volume": 6556.4, "trend": 2.537333, "fair_value": 2.991564, "relative_strength": -0.185436, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.009902, "energy": 51.810498, "activity_lines": [ 2.594, 2.514545, 2.470905, 2.473376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }