{ "ticker": { "uuid": "405e1800-7a49-46ff-ab21-0f55e385e057", "symbol": "SYN", "name": "Synergia Energy Ltd", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.436, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.425, "architecture_energy": 16.998, "architecture_maturity": 23.608, "architecture_confidence": 75.856, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.63, "rotation_up": 24.62, "upward_expansion": 15.01, "deceleration": 40.23, "rotation_down": 35.44, "downward_expansion": 62.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.9e-05, 8.7e-05, 9.4e-05, 9.7e-05 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.0001, "trend_reference": 9.9e-05, "distance_from_trend": 0.013514, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.00055, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.818182, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.61809, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.111111, "excess_performance": 0.059876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013514, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113772, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.818182, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012487, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.296181, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061523, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.311503, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 381153955, "relative_activity": 2.628837, "balance": 7.311503, "dry_up": 1.200499, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.238462, "annualized_volatility": 0.739197, "from_high_reference": -0.565217, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.9e-05, "fair_value_reference": 0.00055, "structural_low": 5e-05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.022222, "positive_rate": 0.393939, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": -0.052756, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.811111, "worst_return": -0.588235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.108108, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.145466, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.571429, "worst_return": -0.588235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.275862, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.318724, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.422222, "worst_return": -0.718447, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 8e-05, "volume": 122448995, "typical_volume": 306266119.75, "trend": 9.8e-05, "fair_value": 0.000578, "relative_strength": -46.297314, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.543547, "energy": 49.093639, "activity_lines": [ 8.3e-05, 9.2e-05, 9.9e-05, 0.0001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8e-05, "volume": 82644216, "typical_volume": 299955178.75, "trend": 9.9e-05, "fair_value": 0.00057, "relative_strength": -45.57173, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.025353, "energy": 57.929268, "activity_lines": [ 8.1e-05, 8.8e-05, 9.7e-05, 9.8e-05 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8e-05, "volume": 32739776, "typical_volume": 238424791.25, "trend": 9.9e-05, "fair_value": 0.000564, "relative_strength": -45.073765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.29886, "energy": 49.571073, "activity_lines": [ 8e-05, 8.6e-05, 9.5e-05, 9.7e-05 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9e-05, "volume": 199701193, "typical_volume": 142620696.05, "trend": 9.9e-05, "fair_value": 0.000557, "relative_strength": -37.642995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.830205, "energy": 31.455954, "activity_lines": [ 8.3e-05, 8.5e-05, 9.4e-05, 9.7e-05 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0001, "volume": 381153955, "typical_volume": 144989575.8, "trend": 9.9e-05, "fair_value": 0.00055, "relative_strength": -29.61809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.425278, "energy": 16.997771, "activity_lines": [ 8.9e-05, 8.7e-05, 9.4e-05, 9.7e-05 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }