{ "ticker": { "uuid": "405e5d75-9895-4f5d-bf09-712880485683", "symbol": "MXF", "name": "Mexico Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.249, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.157, "architecture_energy": 13.298, "architecture_maturity": 12.819, "architecture_confidence": 47.442, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.84, "rotation_up": 35.4, "upward_expansion": 58.74, "deceleration": 59.26, "rotation_down": 29.19, "downward_expansion": 20.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.56713, 21.516003, 21.585554, 21.482961 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.87, "trend_reference": 21.396954, "distance_from_trend": 0.022108, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.466153, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.328179, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.204214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011415, "excess_performance": -0.13704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022108, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039234, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.328179, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053536, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071425, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011415, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.39559, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 168673, "relative_activity": 0.741788, "balance": 1.39559, "dry_up": 0.859064, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044521, "annualized_volatility": 0.217045, "from_high_reference": -0.033765, "from_low_reference": 0.285233 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.396954, "fair_value_reference": 16.466153, "structural_low": 19.229278, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008213, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.016357, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.159371, "worst_return": -0.110314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.032353, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.012769, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129119, "worst_return": -0.121356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.079233, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.064548, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281045, "worst_return": -0.19833, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017014, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.08821, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01232, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028975, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.144087, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.357099, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120314, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00018, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03519, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.780896, "volume": 116525, "typical_volume": 164669.75, "trend": 14.182649, "fair_value": 11.885833, "relative_strength": 3.276843, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.293839, "volume": 102686, "typical_volume": 271818.25, "trend": 21.160259, "fair_value": 16.29955, "relative_strength": -2.985845, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.577922, "energy": 13.00329, "activity_lines": [ 21.459973, 21.616414, 21.520719, 21.419254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.126559, "volume": 182352, "typical_volume": 244908.05, "trend": 21.215175, "fair_value": 16.339987, "relative_strength": -2.397451, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.397884, "energy": 14.256626, "activity_lines": [ 21.293183, 21.511159, 21.501849, 21.417079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.19, "volume": 229002, "typical_volume": 235825.35, "trend": 21.255747, "fair_value": 16.377453, "relative_strength": -1.674697, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.75547, "energy": 12.951144, "activity_lines": [ 21.22577, 21.432046, 21.495311, 21.415455 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.76, "volume": 201333, "typical_volume": 230078.6, "trend": 21.327906, "fair_value": 16.420655, "relative_strength": -0.255137, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.541012, "energy": 9.469729, "activity_lines": [ 21.395296, 21.46457, 21.539908, 21.447988 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.87, "volume": 168673, "typical_volume": 227387.0, "trend": 21.396954, "fair_value": 16.466153, "relative_strength": -3.204214, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.15661, "energy": 13.297517, "activity_lines": [ 21.56713, 21.516003, 21.585554, 21.482961 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }