{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4063e70b-0ad8-4ad1-af96-289077341eb7", "symbol": "FWL", "name": "Foley Wines Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.897, "architecture_energy": 25.296, "architecture_maturity": 98.037, "architecture_confidence": 80.341, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.41, "rotation_up": 27.88, "upward_expansion": 21.14, "deceleration": 46.78, "rotation_down": 30.57, "downward_expansion": 62.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.486, 0.480909, 0.484214, 0.502989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.49, "trend_reference": 0.533167, "distance_from_trend": -0.080963, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.738183, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.336208, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.89432, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.222222, "excess_performance": -0.250496, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080963, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079424, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.336208, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01245, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158943, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029755, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.222222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.964201, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84779, "relative_activity": 1.826016, "balance": 0.964201, "dry_up": 1.490796, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040031, "annualized_volatility": 0.253757, "from_high_reference": -0.246154, "from_low_reference": 0.139535 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.533167, "fair_value_reference": 0.738183, "structural_low": 0.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.395349, "directional_follow_through": 0.488372, "median_excess_return": -0.017338, "regime_survival": 0.837209, "best_return": 0.172415, "worst_return": -0.196262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.017536, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.037232, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.051725, "worst_return": -0.283952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.051375, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042038, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.000472, "worst_return": -0.254099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.47, "volume": 106064, "typical_volume": 36952.4, "trend": 0.551333, "fair_value": 0.757053, "relative_strength": -20.532002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.983491, "energy": 49.871647, "activity_lines": [ 0.473333, 0.472, 0.493238, 0.518301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.47, "volume": 138925, "typical_volume": 40595.45, "trend": 0.546333, "fair_value": 0.752364, "relative_strength": -19.559679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.452495, "energy": 52.131013, "activity_lines": [ 0.472, 0.470636, 0.488786, 0.513054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.49, "volume": 32100, "typical_volume": 42143.25, "trend": 0.542333, "fair_value": 0.747927, "relative_strength": -16.301958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.161107, "energy": 44.275802, "activity_lines": [ 0.477333, 0.473818, 0.48681, 0.509419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.49, "volume": 21057, "typical_volume": 43169.9, "trend": 0.537333, "fair_value": 0.742993, "relative_strength": -15.50637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.458727, "energy": 36.066184, "activity_lines": [ 0.482, 0.477455, 0.485286, 0.506043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.49, "volume": 84779, "typical_volume": 46428.4, "trend": 0.533167, "fair_value": 0.738183, "relative_strength": -15.89432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.896745, "energy": 25.295597, "activity_lines": [ 0.486, 0.480909, 0.484214, 0.502989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }