{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "40660378-1e27-4d78-a444-fe53f948902c",
    "symbol": "CRUD",
    "name": "WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 94.272,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 34.089,
    "architecture_energy": 28.448,
    "architecture_maturity": 36.751,
    "architecture_confidence": 55.041,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.98,
        "rotation_up": 58.48,
        "upward_expansion": 66.77,
        "deceleration": 64.35,
        "rotation_down": 13.88,
        "downward_expansion": 12.44
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        12.4276,
        12.110945,
        12.326495,
        12.109652
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 12.042,
    "trend_reference": 11.410467,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.055347,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 9.302865,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.29444,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 5.080346,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.436821,
    "excess_performance": 0.26593,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.055347,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.146431,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.29444,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.136916,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.050803,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.219961,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.436821,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.617221,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5152246,
      "relative_activity": 1.350238,
      "balance": 0.617221,
      "dry_up": 1.139268,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.081165,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.531183,
      "from_high_reference": -0.171232,
      "from_low_reference": 0.667867
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 11.410467,
      "fair_value_reference": 9.302865,
      "structural_low": 8.116,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.04795,
        "positive_rate": 0.642857,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.642857,
        "median_excess_return": 0.046912,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.206218,
        "worst_return": -0.068331,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.011273,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011177,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.634834,
        "worst_return": -0.185127,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.02469,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.111487,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.503563,
        "worst_return": -0.151014,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.030024,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.214376,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.977718,
        "worst_return": -0.109318,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.035072,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.000789,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.096727,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.105204,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.018139,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.094748,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.153592,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 2811448,
        "typical_volume": 4870609.2,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 12.633814,
        "energy": 21.459379,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 13.114,
        "volume": 3384784,
        "typical_volume": 4449655.15,
        "trend": 11.0993,
        "fair_value": 9.258494,
        "relative_strength": 19.279948,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.446949,
        "energy": 19.017881,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.1464,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 12.624,
        "volume": 6040420,
        "typical_volume": 4134333.6,
        "trend": 11.272,
        "fair_value": 9.283103,
        "relative_strength": 13.717985,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.892337,
        "energy": 27.221869,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.4424,
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          12.059974
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 12.042,
        "volume": 5152246,
        "typical_volume": 3815804.65,
        "trend": 11.410467,
        "fair_value": 9.302865,
        "relative_strength": 5.080346,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.089466,
        "energy": 28.447785,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.4276,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}