{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4074970c-84e1-4bad-b96f-052ef6d9fae8", "symbol": "00739", "name": "Yuanta MSCI China A ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.067, "architecture_energy": 17.733, "architecture_maturity": 34.882, "architecture_confidence": 76.907, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.02, "rotation_up": 22.76, "upward_expansion": 45.02, "deceleration": 82.13, "rotation_down": 41.85, "downward_expansion": 34.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.307333, 28.585272, 28.642476, 28.396279 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.68, "trend_reference": 28.071667, "distance_from_trend": 0.021671, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.481338, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275725, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.286505, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.052477, "excess_performance": -0.326835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021671, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03611, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275725, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212865, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009252, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052477, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.069497, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 377000, "relative_activity": 1.090258, "balance": 1.069497, "dry_up": 1.25455, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034465, "annualized_volatility": 0.13418, "from_high_reference": -0.043681, "from_low_reference": 0.349974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.071667, "fair_value_reference": 22.481338, "structural_low": 25.91, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.015539, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.011582, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.023013, "worst_return": -0.040851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.051645, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.101415, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.001263, "worst_return": -0.150735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.065475, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065166, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.036438, "worst_return": -0.130213, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.809012, "energy": 46.399432, "activity_lines": [ 29.222667, 29.136909, 28.696905, 28.33385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.559999, "volume": 394160, "typical_volume": 348065.45, "trend": 27.877333, "fair_value": 22.343661, "relative_strength": -23.005988, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.263468, "energy": 12.545757, "activity_lines": [ 28.669333, 28.863272, 28.628809, 28.317376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.299999, "volume": 625025, "typical_volume": 344749.3, "trend": 27.954333, "fair_value": 22.390483, "relative_strength": -22.274561, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.319204, "energy": 19.309796, "activity_lines": [ 28.445999, 28.747272, 28.631714, 28.344645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.08, "volume": 339056, "typical_volume": 341002.1, "trend": 28.005333, "fair_value": 22.437166, "relative_strength": -21.437053, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.948004, "energy": 17.386785, "activity_lines": [ 28.232666, 28.607636, 28.609047, 28.352753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.68, "volume": 377000, "typical_volume": 345789.6, "trend": 28.071667, "fair_value": 22.481338, "relative_strength": -21.286505, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.066635, "energy": 17.733199, "activity_lines": [ 28.307333, 28.585272, 28.642476, 28.396279 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }