{ "ticker": { "uuid": "407eb155-bfc5-46a0-b2d8-d671b4bda67c", "symbol": "RPMG3", "name": "Refinaria de Petr\u00f3leos de Manguinhos S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -87.749, "architecture_energy": 73.692, "architecture_maturity": 59.635, "architecture_confidence": 88.679, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 24.11, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 58.37, "rotation_down": 71.33, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.068, 1.138727, 1.416857, 1.621333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.91, "trend_reference": 1.857333, "distance_from_trend": -0.51005, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.40391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.62145, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -58.684632, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.657895, "excess_performance": -0.600846, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.51005, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139459, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.62145, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.50136, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.586846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329355, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.657895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.447396, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37800, "relative_activity": 1.609538, "balance": 0.447396, "dry_up": 0.819672, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.196957, "annualized_volatility": 0.559755, "from_high_reference": -0.706452, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.857333, "fair_value_reference": 2.40391, "structural_low": 0.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.023769, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.041727, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.278846, "worst_return": -0.148936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.004762, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.10658, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.3125, "worst_return": -0.24269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031793, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.152685, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.293269, "worst_return": -0.242798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.217195, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.157561, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.225806, "worst_return": -0.45614, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009524, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.18, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032787, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006711, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118644, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.073684, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.165385, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.168889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.35461, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.27, "volume": 66300, "typical_volume": 190795.0, "trend": 2.060667, "fair_value": 2.723974, "relative_strength": 12.430899, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": 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"relative_strength": -49.948497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.403533, "energy": 93.250621, "activity_lines": [ 1.355333, 1.604, 1.84281, 1.953978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.2, "volume": 8700, "typical_volume": 22755.0, "trend": 2.025, "fair_value": 2.460321, "relative_strength": -51.700039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.475613, "energy": 92.511097, "activity_lines": [ 1.274, 1.498364, 1.766524, 1.898839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.15, "volume": 12300, "typical_volume": 23220.0, "trend": 1.991667, "fair_value": 2.448718, "relative_strength": -53.723766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.240094, "energy": 92.204157, "activity_lines": [ 1.220667, 1.399636, 1.690619, 1.842387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.15, "volume": 20900, "typical_volume": 23090.0, "trend": 1.960667, "fair_value": 2.4375, "relative_strength": -51.610516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.349376, "energy": 88.685127, "activity_lines": [ 1.184667, 1.318545, 1.620095, 1.788086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.14, "volume": 12100, "typical_volume": 23220.0, "trend": 1.927667, "fair_value": 2.426218, "relative_strength": -51.036439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.14384, "energy": 72.23384, "activity_lines": [ 1.160667, 1.254727, 1.553857, 1.73514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.15, "volume": 6200, "typical_volume": 22215.0, "trend": 1.896333, "fair_value": 2.415321, "relative_strength": -50.603468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.966044, "energy": 66.939782, "activity_lines": [ 1.150667, 1.209818, 1.494048, 1.684968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.91, "volume": 37800, "typical_volume": 23485.0, "trend": 1.857333, "fair_value": 2.40391, "relative_strength": -58.684632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.749375, "energy": 73.692256, "activity_lines": [ 1.068, 1.138727, 1.416857, 1.621333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }