{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40871ef4-bfa0-40c2-873a-568780fd112c", "symbol": "MAGN", "name": "Magnera Corp placeholder", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.964, "architecture_energy": 36.085, "architecture_maturity": 16.196, "architecture_confidence": 48.154, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.32, "rotation_up": 54.45, "upward_expansion": 52.29, "deceleration": 32.61, "rotation_down": 24.04, "downward_expansion": 12.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.253333, 13.031455, 12.273476, 11.944925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.91, "trend_reference": 11.982, "distance_from_trend": 0.07745, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.511795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.262783, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.112512, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131225, "excess_performance": -0.25685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07745, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010325, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.262783, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126701, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041125, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075166, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131225, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.210721, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3873383, "relative_activity": 1.917734, "balance": 1.210721, "dry_up": 1.275271, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111593, "annualized_volatility": 0.574194, "from_high_reference": -0.168363, "from_low_reference": 0.651951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.982, "fair_value_reference": 17.511795, "structural_low": 8.71, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.093994, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.06506, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.064972, "worst_return": -0.230216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.099502, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.139694, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096422, "worst_return": -0.416788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.197034, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.310304, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.054726, "worst_return": -0.546763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069869, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.195699, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.232713, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007768, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042234, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164499, 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"mixed", "direction": 26.805975, "energy": 44.416271, "activity_lines": [ 12.626, 12.152909, 11.452857, 11.617269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.61, "volume": 3061169, "typical_volume": 2072266.8, "trend": 12.120667, "fair_value": 17.879551, "relative_strength": 4.264636, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.006829, "energy": 44.7029, "activity_lines": [ 12.974667, 12.484, 11.690429, 11.710516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.71, "volume": 1576349, "typical_volume": 2061308.35, "trend": 12.075, "fair_value": 17.697436, "relative_strength": 5.972465, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.348441, "energy": 50.214909, "activity_lines": [ 13.291333, 12.805455, 11.934381, 11.813054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.25, "volume": 1792124, "typical_volume": 2027468.95, "trend": 12.041, "fair_value": 17.586538, "relative_strength": 1.479136, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.346449, "energy": 43.627619, "activity_lines": [ 13.353333, 12.974727, 12.125667, 11.88886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.91, "volume": 3873383, "typical_volume": 2019770.95, "trend": 11.982, "fair_value": 17.511795, "relative_strength": -4.112512, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.964151, "energy": 36.084666, "activity_lines": [ 13.253333, 13.031455, 12.273476, 11.944925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }