{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4087edfb-e25c-4ea5-b346-002134b59c86", "symbol": "CLIX", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST LONG ONLINE SHORT STORES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.952, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.856, "architecture_energy": 69.141, "architecture_maturity": 7.615, "architecture_confidence": 68.806, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.27, "rotation_up": 71.66, "upward_expansion": 87.94, "deceleration": 44.91, "rotation_down": 12.08, "downward_expansion": 16.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.010167, 57.885241, 57.620951, 57.023397 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 60.574, "trend_reference": 56.600979, "distance_from_trend": 0.070194, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.832497, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.266378, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.530586, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.112796, "excess_performance": -0.012829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070194, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017395, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.266378, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023924, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003181, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112796, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.202661, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8122, "relative_activity": 2.88326, "balance": 2.202661, "dry_up": 1.384476, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034725, "annualized_volatility": 0.250167, "from_high_reference": -0.033899, "from_low_reference": 0.20748 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.600979, "fair_value_reference": 47.832497, "structural_low": 50.165634, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.009562, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.009737, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.100555, "worst_return": -0.133865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0279, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.012, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.15948, "worst_return": -0.143159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.126135, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.032832, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.143131, "worst_return": -0.045715, 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"fair_value": 47.279365, "relative_strength": -8.478169, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.132855, "energy": 5.573498, "activity_lines": [ 56.52619, 56.514364, 56.798959, 56.528756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.2421, "volume": 2585, "typical_volume": 2787.8, "trend": 56.817259, "fair_value": 47.417475, "relative_strength": -7.037619, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.279005, "energy": 14.903097, "activity_lines": [ 57.283085, 56.752978, 56.991376, 56.616687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.0109, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 2556.55, "trend": 56.665517, "fair_value": 47.536099, "relative_strength": -9.85239, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.073445, "energy": 12.014796, "activity_lines": [ 57.032487, 56.605559, 56.950926, 56.564664 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.8562, "volume": 3193, "typical_volume": 2542.6, "trend": 56.654311, "fair_value": 47.6797, "relative_strength": -4.557207, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.070085, "energy": 46.927658, "activity_lines": [ 58.077607, 57.194726, 57.267875, 56.770514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.574, "volume": 8122, "typical_volume": 2816.95, "trend": 56.600979, "fair_value": 47.832497, "relative_strength": -6.530586, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.855886, "energy": 69.140521, "activity_lines": [ 59.010167, 57.885241, 57.620951, 57.023397 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }