{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4088747c-3d52-405a-a5e8-fae48e79328b", "symbol": "SVL", "name": "Silver Mines Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.955, "architecture_energy": 27.91, "architecture_maturity": 90.568, "architecture_confidence": 79.448, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.77, "rotation_up": 26.96, "upward_expansion": 16.1, "deceleration": 46.77, "rotation_down": 26.33, "downward_expansion": 59.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.138, 0.134455, 0.14219, 0.153226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.15, "trend_reference": 0.171167, "distance_from_trend": -0.123661, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.146897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021121, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.781438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.268293, "excess_performance": -0.331998, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123661, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103057, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021121, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170427, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248856, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268293, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.419488, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22799862, "relative_activity": 0.835704, "balance": 0.419488, "dry_up": 0.778484, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121795, "annualized_volatility": 0.641947, "from_high_reference": -0.473684, "from_low_reference": 0.304348 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.171167, "fair_value_reference": 0.146897, "structural_low": 0.115, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.008058, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.204301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.095489, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.074628, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.212121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.088235, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.071902, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.473684, "worst_return": -0.452941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -24.561803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.82555, "energy": 47.542366, "activity_lines": [ 0.13, 0.131545, 0.144095, 0.157323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.135, "volume": 19720462, "typical_volume": 29625674.2, "trend": 0.173, "fair_value": 0.147058, "relative_strength": -23.447285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.731676, "energy": 39.308239, "activity_lines": [ 0.132, 0.131455, 0.142262, 0.15471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.15, "volume": 22799862, "typical_volume": 27282206.3, "trend": 0.171167, "fair_value": 0.146897, "relative_strength": -17.781438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.954688, "energy": 27.910159, "activity_lines": [ 0.138, 0.134455, 0.14219, 0.153226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }