{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4089c02c-2458-4039-bbd6-aa1274a5e188", "symbol": "EUFM", "name": "UBS MSCI EMU Select Factor Mix UCITS ETF EUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 98.259, "architecture_energy": 99.222, "architecture_maturity": 37.314, "architecture_confidence": 76.082, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 81.16, "upward_expansion": 100.0, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 18.29, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.9072, 18.728036, 18.363543, 18.041097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 19.278, "trend_reference": 17.6632, "distance_from_trend": 0.091422, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.801494, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.302436, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.271633, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.142874, "excess_performance": -0.028018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091422, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039411, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.302436, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058707, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019821, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142874, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 105.833333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 633, "relative_activity": 4.119753, "balance": 105.833333, "dry_up": 1.119427, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00901, "annualized_volatility": 0.174246, "from_high_reference": -0.00114, "from_low_reference": 0.219509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.6632, "fair_value_reference": 14.801494, "structural_low": 16.18, "invalidation": "A 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"fair_value": 14.62966, "relative_strength": -5.006238, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.187243, "energy": 90.125957, "activity_lines": [ 18.510133, 18.322145, 17.926457, 17.68529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.656, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 123.95, "trend": 17.444333, "fair_value": 14.671904, "relative_strength": -3.488311, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.63418, "energy": 92.764199, "activity_lines": [ 18.5896, 18.415163, 18.025562, 17.76815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.75, "volume": 55, "typical_volume": 125.5, "trend": 17.520133, "fair_value": 14.71475, "relative_strength": -2.704874, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.799258, "energy": 93.508627, "activity_lines": [ 18.668666, 18.508873, 18.130105, 17.852387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 122.0, "trend": 17.582867, "fair_value": 14.756429, "relative_strength": -3.241556, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.49406, "energy": 91.629797, "activity_lines": [ 18.709733, 18.581163, 18.2262, 17.931733 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.278, "volume": 633, "typical_volume": 153.65, "trend": 17.6632, "fair_value": 14.801494, "relative_strength": -3.271633, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 98.258729, "energy": 99.221612, "activity_lines": [ 18.9072, 18.728036, 18.363543, 18.041097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }