{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40911444-9806-407c-8fd8-8687c58dab93", "symbol": "MCB", "name": "Metropolitan Bank Holding", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.403, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.006, "architecture_energy": 18.277, "architecture_maturity": 76.011, "architecture_confidence": 82.934, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.64, "rotation_up": 26.46, "upward_expansion": 56.57, "deceleration": 87.96, "rotation_down": 31.02, "downward_expansion": 20.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 93.306684, 94.689941, 93.315864, 91.495551 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 92.86, "trend_reference": 89.75989, "distance_from_trend": 0.034538, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.608871, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.50725, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.56005, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033933, "excess_performance": -0.159558, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034538, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078385, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.50725, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084259, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051554, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033933, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.087195, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 602040, "relative_activity": 0.849452, "balance": 1.087195, "dry_up": 1.154229, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064736, "annualized_volatility": 0.3012, "from_high_reference": -0.086543, "from_low_reference": 0.443353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 89.75989, "fair_value_reference": 61.608871, "structural_low": 75.788442, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.029634, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.003729, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.260326, "worst_return": -0.151302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.032604, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.082316, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.297008, "worst_return": -0.313874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.092555, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.025608, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.399302, "worst_return": -0.291734, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": 9.814623, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.458742, "energy": 62.985686, "activity_lines": [ 97.701066, 95.998949, 92.762089, 90.878682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 90.686787, "volume": 1260328, "typical_volume": 713455.65, "trend": 88.787035, "fair_value": 61.020369, "relative_strength": 2.006583, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.96833, "energy": 33.962923, "activity_lines": [ 95.533112, 95.373033, 92.87931, 91.028707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.48, "volume": 889866, "typical_volume": 720742.25, "trend": 89.316879, "fair_value": 61.306448, "relative_strength": 2.685821, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.3811, "energy": 20.857268, "activity_lines": [ 94.124443, 95.008487, 93.112324, 91.266963 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 92.86, "volume": 602040, "typical_volume": 708739.0, "trend": 89.75989, "fair_value": 61.608871, "relative_strength": -0.56005, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.005816, "energy": 18.27656, "activity_lines": [ 93.306684, 94.689941, 93.315864, 91.495551 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }