{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4091185c-b682-4832-bf96-2de2019f55ab", "symbol": "OVLY", "name": "Oak Valley Bancorp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.938, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.102, "architecture_energy": 9.145, "architecture_maturity": 11.768, "architecture_confidence": 72.418, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.35, "rotation_up": 25.78, "upward_expansion": 41.75, "deceleration": 75.93, "rotation_down": 30.49, "downward_expansion": 33.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.161667, 33.337009, 33.488721, 33.346317 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.45, "trend_reference": 33.079131, "distance_from_trend": 0.011212, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.101107, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234267, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.519206, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005057, "excess_performance": -0.19251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011212, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049294, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234267, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033858, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055192, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005057, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.715851, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120483, "relative_activity": 0.598924, "balance": 0.715851, "dry_up": 0.705233, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058054, "annualized_volatility": 0.187864, "from_high_reference": -0.070058, "from_low_reference": 0.33169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.079131, "fair_value_reference": 27.101107, "structural_low": 30.68, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.014073, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.00574, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.099318, "worst_return": -0.107579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.038062, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.027281, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.149102, "worst_return": -0.086137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053905, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027529, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.387437, "worst_return": 0.007263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.15775, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.164889, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.53793, "worst_return": 0.009681, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012509, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107197, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107579, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055924, "active": false 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33.353853, 33.614676, 33.561837, 33.303248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.250066, "volume": 165455, "typical_volume": 198621.65, "trend": 32.825305, "fair_value": 27.000944, "relative_strength": -3.732604, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.263079, "energy": 9.16036, "activity_lines": [ 32.934817, 33.365853, 33.462078, 33.27163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.496159, "volume": 162681, "typical_volume": 202010.5, "trend": 32.963202, "fair_value": 27.050929, "relative_strength": -0.614639, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.119131, "energy": 11.143065, "activity_lines": [ 33.049807, 33.353229, 33.481755, 33.314911 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.45, "volume": 120483, "typical_volume": 201165.75, "trend": 33.079131, "fair_value": 27.101107, "relative_strength": -5.519206, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.102495, "energy": 9.144748, "activity_lines": [ 33.161667, 33.337009, 33.488721, 33.346317 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }