{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4092c7f2-04a2-4b53-a772-31a7f1cf1243", "symbol": "ELF", "name": "ELF Beauty Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 64.423, "architecture_energy": 74.807, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.507, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.74, "rotation_up": 81.62, "upward_expansion": 67.2, "deceleration": 18.8, "rotation_down": 16.41, "downward_expansion": 23.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.348, 78.952909, 70.837381, 70.428753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 98.49, "trend_reference": 72.740667, "distance_from_trend": 0.353988, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 115.913846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.150317, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.310267, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.199781, "excess_performance": 0.074156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.353988, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021948, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.150317, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.340082, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003103, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.453579, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.199781, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.760621, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22316285, "relative_activity": 1.433352, "balance": 1.760621, "dry_up": 0.87535, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096553, "annualized_volatility": 0.661967, "from_high_reference": -0.347705, "from_low_reference": 1.017411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.740667, "fair_value_reference": 115.913846, "structural_low": 48.82, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.098964, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.04551, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.123033, "worst_return": -0.043299, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.169909, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.150685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228609, "worst_return": 0.11121, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.241568, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.152524, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.806009, "worst_return": -0.322873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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64.830524, 67.725419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 77.36, "volume": 11760050, "typical_volume": 15126220.4, "trend": 72.189, "fair_value": 116.421731, "relative_strength": -18.930796, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.128882, "energy": 47.947969, "activity_lines": [ 75.472, 70.355273, 65.985381, 68.052452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.89, "volume": 10358296, "typical_volume": 14950409.4, "trend": 72.358333, "fair_value": 116.131603, "relative_strength": -13.062978, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.370261, "energy": 62.619219, "activity_lines": [ 78.325333, 73.508545, 67.691095, 68.742839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98.49, "volume": 22316285, "typical_volume": 15569302.5, "trend": 72.740667, "fair_value": 115.913846, "relative_strength": 0.310267, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 64.42256, "energy": 74.806886, "activity_lines": [ 85.348, 78.952909, 70.837381, 70.428753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }