{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40968cf7-3861-4108-b38d-a118af5ca98c", "symbol": "TAR", "name": "Taruga Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.024, "architecture_energy": 7.094, "architecture_maturity": 30.366, "architecture_confidence": 44.45, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.32, "rotation_up": 32.9, "upward_expansion": 31.27, "deceleration": 61.84, "rotation_down": 31.45, "downward_expansion": 22.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.019933, 0.019891, 0.019381, 0.019473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.021, "trend_reference": 0.019783, "distance_from_trend": 0.0615, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.011654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.80198, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.941076, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.166667, "excess_performance": 0.102961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0615, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115602, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.80198, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174626, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.199411, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096622, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.166667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.085417, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7978000, "relative_activity": 1.879379, "balance": 1.085417, "dry_up": 0.801647, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130037, "annualized_volatility": 0.730771, "from_high_reference": -0.222222, "from_low_reference": 1.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.019783, "fair_value_reference": 0.011654, "structural_low": 0.016, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.05, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.017121, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.069048, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055937, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.571429, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.12, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.19899, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.444444, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.215853, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.095238, "worst_return": -0.56, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.181818, "active": false 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"direction": 6.320879, "energy": 17.925431, "activity_lines": [ 0.020067, 0.019518, 0.019126, 0.019403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.02, "volume": 2128685, "typical_volume": 4337356.5, "trend": 0.01965, "fair_value": 0.011545, "relative_strength": 23.546744, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.286818, "energy": 18.705948, "activity_lines": [ 0.0201, 0.019673, 0.019205, 0.019428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.019, "volume": 2872586, "typical_volume": 4087703.2, "trend": 0.01965, "fair_value": 0.011596, "relative_strength": 13.421987, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.661263, "energy": 1.971328, "activity_lines": [ 0.019667, 0.019609, 0.019193, 0.019386 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.021, "volume": 7978000, "typical_volume": 4245020.3, "trend": 0.019783, "fair_value": 0.011654, "relative_strength": 19.941076, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.023943, "energy": 7.093784, "activity_lines": [ 0.019933, 0.019891, 0.019381, 0.019473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }