{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4099598c-3073-46e4-ad0c-74554121edaa", "symbol": "MND", "name": "Monadelphous Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-09", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.563, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.288, "architecture_energy": 53.61, "architecture_maturity": 5.695, "architecture_confidence": 88.193, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.06, "rotation_up": 65.13, "upward_expansion": 84.1, "deceleration": 46.59, "rotation_down": 15.31, "downward_expansion": 15.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.790667, 30.28024, 29.890186, 29.759151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.82, "trend_reference": 29.459253, "distance_from_trend": 0.046191, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.900825, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.630617, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.730532, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.054036, "excess_performance": 0.081266, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046191, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01035, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.630617, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00843, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.097305, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011473, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054036, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.648054, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 819269, "relative_activity": 1.596847, "balance": 4.648054, "dry_up": 2.474964, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054124, "annualized_volatility": 0.270068, "from_high_reference": -0.151188, "from_low_reference": 0.429415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.459253, "fair_value_reference": 18.900825, "structural_low": 27.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.021127, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": 0.014954, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.146027, "worst_return": -0.138674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.091859, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.091719, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.288023, "worst_return": -0.040972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.191081, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.214444, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.517262, "worst_return": -0.117371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.462032, "energy": 11.573302, "activity_lines": [ 29.460213, 29.437475, 29.475129, 29.385429 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 28.690001, "volume": 1133545, "typical_volume": 461391.15, "trend": 29.300152, "fair_value": 18.436709, "relative_strength": 4.440101, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.516149, "energy": 10.151227, "activity_lines": [ 29.095705, 29.328429, 29.396236, 29.346045 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 30.620001, "volume": 1908171, "typical_volume": 506186.55, "trend": 29.319877, "fair_value": 18.548835, "relative_strength": 10.878457, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.84207, "energy": 21.223283, "activity_lines": [ 29.417597, 29.571382, 29.502152, 29.431197 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 30.969999, "volume": 1335116, "typical_volume": 528317.9, "trend": 29.288586, "fair_value": 18.665408, "relative_strength": 12.279706, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.053966, "energy": 22.260314, "activity_lines": [ 29.902462, 29.835971, 29.633925, 29.537656 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 31.23, "volume": 1016607, "typical_volume": 511698.6, "trend": 29.328253, "fair_value": 18.785619, "relative_strength": 12.272215, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.135781, "energy": 51.341355, "activity_lines": [ 30.511333, 30.114742, 29.784651, 29.662909 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "close": 30.82, "volume": 819269, "typical_volume": 513054.15, "trend": 29.459253, "fair_value": 18.900825, "relative_strength": 9.730532, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.288482, "energy": 53.610361, "activity_lines": [ 30.790667, 30.28024, 29.890186, 29.759151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }