{ "ticker": { "uuid": "409d32ba-c809-4e5a-aaf2-cd377cff2a42", "symbol": "SNW", "name": "Sanofi", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.184, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.616, "architecture_energy": 1.852, "architecture_maturity": 34.23, "architecture_confidence": 79.77, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 78.07, "rotation_up": 32.54, "upward_expansion": 24.23, "deceleration": 51.89, "rotation_down": 31.17, "downward_expansion": 30.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.507332, 75.648909, 75.707328, 75.639686 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 75.339996, "trend_reference": 75.556885, "distance_from_trend": -0.002871, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 81.791956, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078883, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.099314, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009179, "excess_performance": -0.073819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002871, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019021, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.078883, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034221, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019104, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009179, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.056355, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91867, "relative_activity": 1.360441, "balance": 1.056355, "dry_up": 1.457724, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04373, "annualized_volatility": 0.205319, "from_high_reference": -0.123492, "from_low_reference": 0.061707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.556885, "fair_value_reference": 81.791956, "structural_low": 70.961167, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.004948, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.006964, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.138317, "worst_return": -0.080468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.027935, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.014801, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.109956, "worst_return": -0.077701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.084587, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.016615, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.167667, "worst_return": -0.051744, "sufficient": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.696855, "energy": 7.611892, "activity_lines": [ 75.706001, 75.739092, 75.754901, 75.663613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.339996, "volume": 91867, "typical_volume": 67527.35, "trend": 75.556885, "fair_value": 81.791956, "relative_strength": -10.099314, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.615731, "energy": 1.852415, "activity_lines": [ 75.507332, 75.648909, 75.707328, 75.639686 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }